Q+A: World powers set to endorse sanctions on North Korea

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World powers agreed on Wednesday to expand sanctions to punish North Korea for its recent nuclear test and weapons program, ending more than two weeks of closed-door negotiations.

The draft U.N. sanctions resolution, written by the United States and endorsed by the four other permanent Security Council members, plus Japan and South Korea, was discussed at a closed-door meeting of the 15-nation Security Council.

Delegations will now send the draft to their capitals to see if it is acceptable, and a vote on the measure is expected on Friday.

The United States, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea all demanded tough sanctions against Pyongyang for its May nuclear test, but Russia and China held out for a milder resolution to avoid provoking North Korea.

In the latest version, the Security Council "calls upon" states to inspect suspicious sea, air and land cargoes but does not demand it. However, the draft resolution would require countries to deny fuel to any suspicious North Korean ships and direct them to dock at "an appropriate and convenient port."

Arms-related financing is banned, while the draft urges, but does not require, states to avoid any new financial deals with North Korea except for humanitarian or development projects.

The resolution also expands a partial U.N. arms embargo to ban the export of all weapons by North Korea but allows Pyongyang to continue purchasing small arms, provided such sales are reported to the United Nations.

Following are questions and answers about the sanctions:

HOW DO THEY DIFFER FROM PREVIOUS SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA?

Sanctions imposed on Pyongyang after its first nuclear test in October 2006, under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718, were widely ignored and unenforced. The new draft urges countries to implement the 2006 sanctions.

The addition of high-seas inspections means the new package "potentially has a sharper edge to it" than Resolution 1718, said Korea Economic Institute President Jack Pritchard, a former U.S. envoy on North Korea.

But guaranteeing enforcement, closing loopholes that North Korea might exploit and holding states that don't enforce the steps accountable remain major tasks, he said.

The call for searches of North Korean ships at sea will have the effect of institutionalizing the Proliferation Security Initiative, a loose grouping of 95 nations set up to stop shipments of weapons of mass destruction, said Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

HOW EFFECTIVE WILL THE SANCTIONS BE?

The effectiveness of the new sanctions, as in previous measures, will depend on China, the nearest North Korea has to a major ally. China shares a long land border with the North, which flies many of its weapons exports over Chinese airspace.

China's paramount concern remains stability in North Korea, the collapse of which could send millions of refugees across their shared border into one of China's economically depressed regions.

China therefore is likely to stop short of full enforcement of the sanctions if it fears punitive measures will push North Korea into chaos, or prompt a North Korea military retaliation or other violent response.

Experts say North Korea, whose mostly small vessels cannot make long-distance sea trips, will try to avert searches on its ships by using flags of convenience. Pyongyang will also try other countermeasures, including using a network of front companies, to get around trade curbs.

WHAT ARE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF THE SANCTIONS?

When the Security Council approved sanctions following the North's 2006 nuclear test, Pyongyang defused pressure to implement the penalties by agreeing to return to six-nation nuclear negotiations

Russia's military said it had information on North Korean plans for another missile launch, following its April 5 test of a longer range missile. Some experts say the North might even test another nuclear device or lash out in other ways.

Pritchard said some unintended consequences could include stifling any economic reforms Pyongyang might be considering to revive its battered economy and making North Korea even more economically dependent on China.

The U.N. debate and nuclear crisis is playing out against the backdrop of a succession process in North Korea, in which ailing leader Kim Jong-il is expected to hand power to his third son. Sanctions targeting the leadership could increase "political fluidity" in Pyongyang, said Cha.

If the sanctions fail, the Asia-Pacific region might have to resign themselves that a nuclear North Korea is "more than simply a temporary reality," he said.

(Editing by Philip Barbara)