As US autos decline, Michigan faces worker exodus

* Auto industry woes force workers to leave Michigan

* Exodus muted by U.S. recession

* Once country recovers, more people seen leaving Michigan

By Nick Carey

YPSILANTI, Mich., June 10 (Reuters) - The upheaval in the
once-mighty U.S. auto industry has left many natives of Michigan
asking themselves the same basic question: Should I move on to
find work, or stay and hope things get better?

"The way I see it, I don't have any choice but to leave,"
said former auto worker Mike Fleury.

Fleury, 51, has been one of the lucky few. He retired in
April from his job at General Motors Corp's GMGMQ.PK Willow
Run engine transmission plant in this town 30 miles (48 km) west
of Detroit and is due to move to Texas where has found a new
job.

When GM filed for bankruptcy on June 1, Willow Run was among
the 11 U.S. plants the company slated to close.

"This is my home, I grew up here and my family's here," said
Fleury, who plans to move his family of four within weeks. "But
there's no work for me here, so I'm moving on while I'm still
young enough to start again."

Long the backbone of Michigan's economy, the auto industry
has been battered by its bet on expensive gas-thirsty pickup
trucks and sports-utility vehicles. Oil price spikes, the credit
crunch and recession have pushed sales to 30-year lows.

The perfect storm of bad news has forced bankruptcy and
thousands of job cuts at GM and Chrysler LLC. But Ford Motor Co
(F.N) is making cuts too. Dozens of parts suppliers for the once
fabled "Big Three" are also based in Michigan.

"People here know Michigan is not going to turn around,"
said John Revitte, a labor studies professor at Michigan State
University. "Those jobs aren't coming back."

Since 2000, U.S. automakers and suppliers have shed 395,000
U.S. jobs, the largest share of them in Michigan.

When Michigan bleeds jobs, it also bleeds people. Some
experts say the latest exodus of people looking for jobs out of
state is muted because the whole nation is in recession.

"As the rest of the economy picks up, more people will leave
in search of work," said demographer William Frey.

'NOBODY'S PAYING HERE'

Michigan was hurting even before the housing crisis hit the
rest of the U.S. economy. The state unemployment rate was the
highest in the nation in April at 12.9 percent, compared with
8.9 percent nationwide.

Almost one in four people in Detroit -- where GM has long
been the largest employer -- are out of work.

Standing in Ryan Jones' garden in the Detroit suburb of
Madison Heights, visitors get a sense of what is going on.

His next-door neighbor has gone into foreclosure. The house
behind his was deserted 18 months ago. But the lights are on.

"A homeless guy broke in and lives there now," said Jones,
27, who moved his wife and two small sons to Chicago in 2007
when the construction firm he worked for transferred his job
there.

"I didn't want to go," he said. "But the alternative was
going into foreclosure here without a job."

The Jones family returned last September. "I just wanted to
come home," he said.

He landed a job in theft prevention at a retailer, earning
about $10 per hour -- about half what he earned in Chicago. But
now Jones wants to move to Nashville, where he hopes to join the
police and has family who can look after his sons.

"Nobody's paying here," he said. "As far as I'm concerned,
if the money's right, I'll go."

CYCLE OF NO RETURN?

Michigan is no stranger to what demographers call
"out-migration." Recession drove people away in the early 1980s.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the peak exodus year was
July 1981 to July 1982 when 158,000 people left.

Some returned in the 1990s as automakers' fortunes improved.
But despite efforts to diversify the state's economy --
promoting tourism or trying to lure high-tech firms -- people
are leaving again.

From July 2006 to July 2008, Michigan lost more than 200,000
residents. The population of Wayne County, where Detroit is
located, has fallen 10 percent since 2000, while other U.S.
cities have remained largely stable.

"The magnitude of these losses when most urban areas are
holding their own underscores the depth of Michigan's problems,"
said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New
Hampshire. "Many people leave home very reluctantly and only if
there's nothing left there for them."

MSU's Revitte said students talk more often of moving to
Chicago or New York and he said the state's "brain drain"
includes skilled middle-aged workers who are also moving.

"We're losing our best and brightest," said James Fouts,
mayor of Warren, a Detroit suburb. "We have to provide people
with a reason to stay."
(Editing by Peter Bohan and Matthew Lewis)