Downturn Has Increased Emerging Market Opportunities for Global Retailers, Says A.T....

Downturn Has Increased Emerging Market Opportunities for Global Retailers,
Says A.T. Kearney Study

India Reclaims Top Position in 8th Annual Global Retail Development Index; UAE
Climbs 16 Places

CHICAGO, June 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Emerging markets continue to represent
attractive investment opportunities for global retailers and the economic
downturn has made entry to many of these markets more critical and relevant,
according to global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney's eighth annual
Global Retail Development Index (GRDI), a study of retail investment
attractiveness among 30 emerging markets.

With declining sales in home markets and consumer spending still tight, global
expansion increases in importance as a strategy for growth. The global
recession has made prime real estate locations increasingly available and
affordable in many developing markets. It also has made acquisition
valuations of many local-market retailers very attractive. Unlike most
developed markets, GDP in emerging markets is expected to continue to grow,
albeit at a slower rate, and populations in many countries are younger,
increasingly urban and showing a growing interest in modern retail formats.

"With economic conditions in developed markets improving so slowly, emerging
markets are becoming much more important sources of growth for global
retailers," said Hana Ben-Shabat, A.T. Kearney partner and co-leader of the
study. "Leading global retailers must develop a portfolio strategy that
balances big and developed markets with small and developing markets to manage
risks across the globe."

Larger, resilient developing countries sit atop the 2009 GRDI as they are most
likely to lead the economic recovery. For the fourth time in five years,
India is the most attractive country for retail investment according to the
Index. Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Chile,
Brazil, Slovenia and Malaysia round out the GRDI's 2009 top ten countries (see
full ranking of 30 countries below).

Published since 2001, the GRDI helps retailers prioritize their global
development strategies by ranking the retail expansion attractiveness of
emerging countries based on a set of 25 variables including economic and
political risk, retail market attractiveness, retail saturation levels, and
the difference between gross domestic product growth and retail growth. A
detailed analysis and country-specific results for the 2009 GRDI is available
at www.grdi.atkearney.com.

"Countries throughout Asia are well positioned for an early recovery from the
economic crisis as domestic demand is holding up well, GDP growth continues
and trillions of dollars of sovereign reserves are providing governments and
state banks with tools for action," said Michael Moriarty, A.T. Kearney
partner and co-leader of the study. "Asian countries continue to transform
their economies with domestic consumption as a primary focus - a trend that
should favor continued growth in retail over the long term."

In India, slower retail sales are causing Indian retailers to delay expansion
plans and restructure their operations. But this has opened the window of
opportunity for global retailers and many, including Wal-Mart, Carrefour and
Tesco, are continuing expansion plans as Indian consumers grow increasingly
affluent, brand-conscience and familiar with global retail formats. Low
inflation and rent reductions of up to 40 percent in tier-2 and -3 cities also
help make India the most attractive retail investment destination in the 2009
GRDI.

While Russia's GDP is expected to contract this year, the country still
represents a strong opportunity for retailers and is the number two country in
the GRDI. Retail sales are projected to grow at 15 percent annually over the
next five years, with food and non-food sales bouncing back in 2010. The
country's fragmented retail market - the top five retailers control just seven
percent of sales - and reduced valuations provide growth opportunities for
swift-moving retail leaders.

In China, the GRDI's number three country, a $585 billion stimulus package and
efforts to boost economic consumption are showing early signs of success as
retail sales have grown in early 2009. The country's tier-2 and -3 cities in
the central and western regions are attracting foreign retailers' attention.
These cities are less affected by the economic crisis and are more suitable
for new expansion than larger Chinese cities. Both Wal-Mart (140 stores in
China) and Carrefour (135) have continued their expansion throughout the
downturn.

The United Arab Emirates made the biggest move in the 2009 GRDI, rising 16
places to fourth position as its oil-driven economy proved more resistant to
widespread downturn than other countries. While the UAE's population of five
million is relatively small compared to the three countries above it in the
GRDI, it has the highest per capita consumer spending of any country in the
Index. In fact, Dubai is on track to have the world's largest amount of
shopping space per capita by 2010. Retailers in Dubai are focusing on local
customers as tourism drops and that is creating entry opportunities for
hypermarkets and discounters.

Yet while Dubai has recently been synonymous with retail expansion, Abu Dhabi
is the rising star of the Emirates according to the study. It has remained
well insulated from the global economic crisis because of its oil reserves and
sovereign wealth fund. Several new museums and a Formula One race are planned
and will help it attract tourists. Immigration is also expected to pick up as
Abu Dhabi becomes a nearby alternative to Dubai. New city developments will
increase real estate supply and strong awareness of global brands among the
population will provide opportunities for foreign retailers.

Vietnam, the most attractive country in last year's GRDI, fell to sixth
position because of inflationary pressures from its own real estate boom,
consumer price inflation in the last half of 2008, and a significant drop in
its export-driven economy. However, many global retailers are well
established in Vietnam, including South Korea's Lotte, Japan's Seiyu,
Malaysia's Parkson, Hong Kong's Dairy Farm and Germany's Metro.

"Vietnam has some short-term challenges, but our long-term outlook for the
country remains positive as it continues to open its doors to international
investors," said Ben-Shabat. "Its population is young and it continues to
urbanize, making it easier for suppliers to fulfill the country's demand."

About A.T. Kearney
A.T. Kearney is a global management consulting firm that uses strategic
insight, tailored solutions and a collaborative working style to help clients
achieve sustainable results. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors on
CEO-agenda issues to the world's leading corporations across all major
industries. A.T. Kearney's offices are located in major business centers in
36 countries. For more information, please visit www.atkearney.com.

A.T. Kearney Global Retail Development Index, 2009

Country 2009 2008 Change
Rank Rank
India 1 2 +1
Russia 2 3 +1
China 3 4 +1
United Arab Emirates 4 20 +16
Saudi Arabia 5 7 +2
Vietnam 6 1 -5
Chile 7 8 +1
Brazil 8 9 +1
Slovenia 9 23 +14
Malaysia 10 13 +3
Algeria 11 12 +1
Mexico 12 11 -1
Latvia 13 21 +8
Tunisia 14 18 +4
Egypt 15 5 -10
Lithuania 16 30 +14
Ukraine 17 17 0
Peru 18 14 -4
Morocco 19 6 -13
Turkey 20 10 -10
Bulgaria 21 16 -5
Indonesia 22 15 -7
Romania 23 22 -1
Croatia 24 N/A N/A
Philippines 25 26 +1
Thailand 26 24 -2
Hungary 27 N/A N/A
Colombia 28 19 -9
El Salvador 29 N/A N/A
Argentina 30 28 -2

About the study
A.T. Kearney's Global Retail Development Index ranks 30 emerging countries on
the urgency for retailers to enter the country. The scores are based on 25
variables across four primary categories: economic and political risk; market
attractiveness; market saturation; and time pressure (difference or addition
between gross domestic product and modern retail area growth).

SOURCE A.T. Kearney

Douglas MacDonald of A.T. Kearney, +1-312-223-6248,
douglas.macdonald@atkearney.com; or U.K., Dan de Belder of Bell Pottinger, +44
(0)20 7861 3887, ddebelder@bell-pottinger.co.uk, for A.T. Kearney