YMR Report Reveals Significant Mismatch Between Solar Cell Shipment Targets and Likely 2009 Results - Further Reductions in Guidance Expected
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AUSTIN, Texas--(Business Wire)-- Young Market Research (YMR) has released the first issue of its Monthly Solar Cell Capacity, Shipment and Company Profile Database and Report. This three-in-one report features essential supply, shipment and company profile data and analysis on over 210 different cell manufacturers. According to YMR President Ross Young, "The first issue of this report shows that solar cell manufacturers are currently overly optimistic on the 2009 market. Aggregating their 2009 shipment forecasts results in a market size of 10.4GWs, up 39% vs. the 2008 total of 7.5GWs and well beyond the likely outcome of 5.5-7.5GWs. As a result, we expect to see many companies reducing their 2009 guidance in coming quarters." For a detailed explanation as to why the 2009 market will likely decline, please see http://www.youngmarketresearch.com/press_details.cfm?id=6. Some of the other highlights of the report include: * After holding the #3 position in shipments in 2008, First Solar is expected to grab the #1 position for the first time in 2009 with a healthy share advantage over its top competitors on cost leadership and strong demand from the growing utility market. * Thin film technologies a-Si and CIGS are expected to occupy 17% of worldwide capacity in 2009, but just 9% of shipments on technical challenges, higher capital costs in the case of a-Si, higher balance of system costs due to lower efficiencies and strong price competition from CdTe and c-Si technologies whose costs and prices are falling rapidly. This report shows 93 cell manufacturers participating in a-Si or CIGS. * The 2009 capacity growth rate will be 40% slower than 2008 as suppliers look to preserve cash. A majority of listed companies lost money in Q1`09 with average operating margins falling from double-digits through Q3`08 to 3% in Q1`09. * 42% CAGR in nameplate capacity to 50GWs in 2012 with at least 18% annual growth as healthy demand growth returns in 2010 due to lower prices and larger stimulus programs worldwide. * China is expected to lead in total capacity throughout the forecast with a dominant share in c-Si capacity and the top share in thin film capacity from 2009. For more information on this report including free sample content, please visit: http://youngmarketresearch.com/solar_cell_capacity.html. Available as a single issue or a monthly or quarterly subscription, a discount of $500 is available if ordered before July 17th. For additional questions, please call 512-514-1226 or write info@youngmarketresearch.com. About YMR YMR was formed by Ross and Barry Young. The Youngs created and managed DisplaySearch and the OLED Association and have over 50-years of industry experience in flat panel displays, semiconductors, solar, computers, banking and consulting. For more information, visit http://www.youngmarketresearch.com. Young Market Research Ross Young, 512-514-1226 ross@youngmarketresearch.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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