Russell Survey: Managers Return to Risk
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Investment Managers Move `From Defense to Offense` but Still Expect Credit Market Recovery to Take Six to 12 More Months TACOMA, Wash.--(Business Wire)-- The riskiest equity category - emerging markets - and the riskiest fixed income category - high yield bonds - were the asset classes that managers were most bullish about in the latest Investment Manager Outlook, a quarterly survey of investment managers conducted by Russell Investments. Seventy-four (74) percent of managers surveyed were bullish on emerging market equities, and 66 percent were bullish on high-yield bonds. Managers turned to high yield and corporate bonds as well as equities of nearly every style and sector. At the same time, managers expressed a resoundingly negative sentiment for investment strategies that represent maneuvers that are traditionally considered to be defensive. Manager bullishness for cash and U.S. Treasuries fell to ten and nine percent respectively. The manager optimism for cash is at an all-time survey low while the figure for Treasuries is at a four-year survey low. Similarly, manager bullishness for the health care and consumer staples sectors fell to 44 percent and 32 percent respectively. Manager optimism for health care is at an all-time survey low while the figure for consumer staples is at a three-year survey low. "Managers are indicating a much higher level of comfort with risk and appear to be making a rotation from defense to offense," said Mark Eibel, director, Client Investment Strategies. "To keep it simple, `anything but cash and Treasuries` appears to be the rule for managers right now." In the March 2009 IMO, managers indicated that they were relying on an improving credit situation as the chief indicator of recovery in the financial markets, and managers who responded to the current survey demonstrated their belief that a credit market recovery was still some time away. Sixty-seven (67) percent of managers responded that they thought it would take either six months or one year for the credit markets to cease their hindrance of a market recovery. "There is a healthy sense of wait-and-see balancing out the managers` embrace of risk and their bullishness for equities nearly across the board," said Eibel. "Taken together, the manager response seems to say that a recovery is probably underway but the ride is still going to be a bumpy one." Russell`s Investment Manager Outlookis intended to generate a meaningful snapshot of investment manager sentiment each quarter. For the current installment of the survey, Russell collected the opinions of senior-level investment decision-makers at U.S. large and small cap equity investment managers, as well as U.S. fixed-income investment managers. About 300 managers participated in this survey. Additional findings from the Investment Manager Outlook include: Managers appear to believe that an economic recovery could follow the current market recovery At this date, the equity markets have recaptured some of the losses experienced during the year. The results of the IMO show managers now appear to be expressing a belief that an economic recovery could also be in the works. Bullishness for the materials and processing sector nearly doubled, rising from 33 percent last quarter to 60 percent. The energy sectors also took substantial jumps in manager bullishness. Other energy rose from 51 percent last quarter to 70 percent, and integrated oils rose from 42 percent to 61 percent. "Although a lasting economic recovery is far from certain, the managers who responded to the Russell survey appear to be pointing in that direction," said Eibel. "The growing enthusiasm for the materials and processing sector reflects a belief that the gears of the economy may be starting to turn. Their optimism for the energy sectors points to the managers expecting another byproduct of a recovering economy - higher and longer-term demand for energy - that may be near." Managers set new high-water marks for bullishness across a range of asset classes and sectors Six of 13 asset classes and eight of 12 sectors reached either a new high in manager bullishness for the IMO survey or the second highest-ever result. The asset classes and sector recording new all-time highs were: * High yield bonds (66 percent bullishness, up five percentage points from March 2009); * Emerging market equities (74 percent bullishness, up 33 percentage points from March 2009); * Small cap growth (57 percent bullishness, up seven percentage points from March 2009); * Other energy (70 percent bullishness, up 19 percentage points from March 2009); * Integrated oils (61 percent bullishness, up 19 percentage points from March 2009); and * Autos and transportation (26 percent bullishness, up 12 percentage points from March 2009). "Although it primarily speaks to the larger story of the return to risk, the manager bullishness for emerging market equities is partially due to a resurgence in commodities prices, a weaker dollar and partially because China`s fiscal recovery efforts are working," said Eibel. About Investment Manager Outlook Prior to the end of each quarter, Russell polls a sample of investment managers to collect top-line opinions about their outlook for the direction of the markets, sectors and asset classes to watch, and trends on the horizon that could impact investment strategy. In addition to the quantitative results, the Investment Manager Outlook provides qualitative analysis and commentary from one of Russell`s senior investment strategists. Detailed results and analysis from the Investment Manager Outlook are available on www.russell.com/IMO. For Index data, please visit www.russell.com. About Russell Russell Investments is a global investment company with $136 billion in assets under management as of March 31, 2009. Russell serves individual, institutional and advisor clients in more than 40 countries and provides investment solutions including mutual funds, retirement investments, institutional asset management, implementation services and global stock market indexes. Russell is world-renowned for its depth of manager research, quality of manager selection and access to some of the world's leading investment managers. It helps investors of all sizes put this access to work in corporate defined benefit and defined contribution plans, and in the life savings of individual investors. Founded in 1936, Russell is a subsidiary of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company. Headquartered in Tacoma, Russell operates principal offices in Amsterdam, Auckland, Johannesburg, London, Melbourne, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Seoul, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo and Toronto. IMPORTANT NOTES Russell Investment Group, a Washington, USA corporation, operates through subsidiaries worldwide including Russell Investments. Russell Investment Group is a subsidiary of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company. Russell Investments is the owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to its indexes. Russell Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA, part of Russell Investments. Russell Investments Jennifer Tice, 253-439-1858 jtice@russell.com or Matt Burkhard, 718-875-2122 mburkhard@neibartgroup.com or www.russell.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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