The Conference Board(R) Germany Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Germany and Related
Composite Economic Indexes for April 2009

BRUSSELS, June 24 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Germany increased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in April.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased in April for the first
time since October 2007 as large positive contributions from stock
prices and the yield spread more than offset a negative contribution
from consumer confidence. However, the index was revised downwards
between December 2008 and March 2009 after new data for gross
enterprises and properties income and inventory changes became
available. Between October 2008 and April 2009, the leading economic
index declined by 10.8 percent (about a -20.5 percent annual rate),
faster than the decline of 7.3 percent (about a -14.1 percent annual
rate) between April and October 2008. In addition, the weaknesses
among
the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Germany, a measure of current economic
activity, continued to fall in April as a result of declines in
industrial production and employment. Between October 2008 and April
2009, the coincident economic index decreased by 3.6 percent (about a
-7.1 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 0.6 percent
(about
a -1.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.
Additionally, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have
remained very widespread, with all four components decreasing during
the
past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 14.4 percent annual
rate
during the first quarter of this year, its largest one-quarter
contraction since 1970, following a decline of 8.6 percent annual rate
during the fourth quarter of 2008.

-- Although The Conference Board LEI for Germany increased slightly this
month, it has been generally falling since July 2007 amid widespread
weaknesses among its components. However, the pace of contraction has
moderated slightly in recent months. The Conference Board CEI for
Germany has been declining since August 2008, and its six-month growth
rate remains near its 44-year low. Despite this month's increase
in the leading economic index, the persistent and rapid declines in
both
composite economic indexes suggest that although the pace of
contraction
may moderate slightly in the near term, the downturn is unlikely to
end
soon.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the seven components in The Conference Board LEI
for Germany increased in April. The positive contributors - in order from the
largest positive contributor to the smallest - are stock prices, yield spread,
new residential construction orders*, new orders in investment goods
industries and inventory change series*. Negative contributors - in order
from largest to smallest - are consumer confidence and gross enterprises and
properties income*.

With the 0.4 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Germany
now stands at 85.8 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 0.9
percent in March and declined 2.6 percent in February. During the six-month
span through April, the index decreased 10.8 percent, with one of the seven
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 14.3 percent).

*See notes under data availability

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components that make up The Conference
Board CEI for Germany increased in April. The only positive contributor was
retail trade. Industrial production, employed persons, and manufacturing
sales declined in April.

With the 0.2 percent decrease in April, The Conference Board CEI for Germany
now stands at 101.3 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
0.3 percent in March and decreased 0.6 percent in February. During the
six-month period through April, the index decreased 3.6 percent, with none of
the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0
percent).

* See notes under data availability.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes

2009 6-month
Feb Mar Apr Oct to Apr

Leading Economic Index (LEI) 86.3 r 85.5 p 85.8 p
Percent Change -2.6 r -0.9 p 0.4 p -10.8 p
Diffusion 14.3 35.7 64.3 14.3

Coincident Economic
Index (CEI) 101.8 101.5 r 101.3 p
Percent Change -0.6 -0.3 r -0.2 p -3.6 p
Diffusion 12.5 50.0 25.0 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, July 21, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. CET
(4:00 A.M. ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board

The Conference Board Europe: +32-2-675-5405, indicators@conference-board.org