The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

THE CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX(TM) (LEI) FOR MEXICO AND RELATED
COMPOSITE ECONOMIC INDEXES FOR APRIL 2009

NEW YORK, June 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico increased 2.9 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 0.2 percent in April.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply again in April.
The real effective exchange rate (inverted), stock prices, the US
refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and
the construction component of industrial production made large
positive
contributions to the index, more than offsetting the negative
contribution from net insufficient inventories. Between October 2008
and
April 2009, the leading economic index declined 5.5 percent (a -10.6
percent annual rate), an improvement from the decrease of 9.6 percent
(a
-18.3 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period.
However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained
widespread in recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued to decline in April.
After
rising slightly in March, employment fell in April, while industrial
production continued to decrease. Between October 2008 and April 2009,
the coincident economic index declined 5.5 percent (a -10.6 percent
annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.2 percent (a -2.5 percent
annual rate) during the previous six months. Furthermore, the
weaknesses
among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with
none
of the components increasing in the past six months. Meanwhile, real
GDP
declined at a 21.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009,
following a decline of 9.8 percent annualized in the fourth quarter of
2008.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico, which had been declining since
the
third quarter of 2008, increased sharply in March and April.
Concurrently, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of
current
economic activity, has been falling since June 2008. Although its
decrease over the past six months is the deepest since 1995, its rate
of
decline has stabilized somewhat in recent months. Taken together, the
recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that the
downturn in economic activity is likely to continue in the near term,
although the pace of the contraction could moderate slightly.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributors to the
index--from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one -- are the
(inverted) real exchange rate, stock prices, the US refiners' acquisition cost
of domestic and imported crude oil, the industrial production construction
component, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. Net insufficient
inventories decreased in April.

With the 2.9 percent increase in April, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico
now stands at 104.0 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased
1.6 percent in March and declined 0.6 percent in February. During the
six-month span through April, the index decreased 5.5 percent, with two of the
six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3
percent).

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 11:00 A.M. (ET)

In Mexico - Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CST)

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the three components that make up The
Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in April. The positive contributor
was the retail sales* component. Number of people employed (measured by total
IMSS beneficiaries) and industrial production declined in April.

With the decrease of 0.2 percent in April, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico
now stands at 105.7 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
0.7 percent in March and decreased 0.8 percent in February. During the
six-month span through April, the index decreased 5.5 percent, with none of
the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0
percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes
reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M.June
23, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: None of the series in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico were based on
our estimates. The retail sales component in The Conference Board CEI for
Mexico was based on our estimates for the month of April.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
----------------------------------
2009 6-month
------------------------ -----------
Feb Mar Apr Oct. to Apr
---- ------- ------- -----------
Leading index 99.5 101.1 r 104.0
Percent Change -0.6 1.6 r 2.9 -5.5
Diffusion 66.7 50.0 83.3 33.3

Coincident Index 106.6 105.9 r 105.7 p
Percent Change -0.8 -0.7 r -0.2 p -5.5 p
Diffusion 0.0 66.7 33.3 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

SOURCE The Conference Board

Indicator Program, +1-212-339-0330, or Media: Frank Tortorici,
+1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232, all of The Conference
Board