Research and Markets: Total Wireless Subscribers in Mexico to Reach 118.35 Million in 2013 with Telcel Losing Market Share to Movistar Mexico over the Next Five Years

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e85bc4/2q09_mexico_mobile) has
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q09 Mexico
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013" to their offering.

Total wireless subscribers in Mexico to reach 118.35 million in 2013 with Telcel
losing market share to Movistar Mexico over the next five years.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Mexico provides over 65 operational and financial
metrics for Mexico's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the
industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013.
We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and
ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Mexico include: Telcel (AMX), Iusacell,
Movistar Mexico (TEF), and Nextel. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated
quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+
mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Mexico's wireless market, but growth
is slowing down

* +13.4% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008

ARPU levels in Mexico continue to decline

* -6.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are starting to decrease

* -1.8% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008

Operators are seeing their EBITDA growth decline

* +9.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Mexico to reach 118.35 million in 2013

* We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Mexico will increase from 77.94
million in 2008 to 118.35 million in 2013.
* Telcel will maintain its lead in Mexico's mobile operator space; our model
predicts that Telcel's subscriber base will increase from 56.37 million accounts
in 2008 to 81.86 million accounts in 2013.
* Movistar Mexico will remain in the second place with 27.51 million subscribers
in 2013.
* Nextel and Iusacell will remain in the third place and the fourth place with
4.55 million and 4.42 million subscribers respectively in 2013.

Telcel leads Mexico's mobile operator space, but its market share will be
declining over the next several years

* Telcel will continue to lead Mexico in market shares, but our model predicts
that its subscriber market share will decline from 72.3% in 2008 to 69.2% in
2013.
* We expect that Iusacell will also see its market share decrease from 4.5% in
2008 to 3.7% in 2013.
* In contrast, we forecast that Movistar Mexico's market share will increase
from 19.7% to 23.2% and Nextel's market share will increase from 3.5% to 3.8%
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Industry average ARPUs in Mexico will continue declining from 2009 to 2013

* Movistar Mexico will continue to receive the lowest ARPU (Average Revenue per
User) in the country. We forecast that its ARPU level will decrease from MXN
(Mexican peso) 133.78 in 2008 to MXN 113.03 in 2013.
* On the other hand, we expect that Telcel's ARPU will fall from MXN 173.54 to
MXN 147.10, and Iusacell's ARPU level will decline from MXN 211.49 to MXN 195.3
over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
* In contrast, Nextel, which already receives the highest level of ARPU in
Mexico, will see its monthly ARPU increase from MXN 777.13 in 2008 to MXN 810.67
in 2013, according to our model.

Industry average EBITDA margin will improve over the next five years

* We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 44.9% in 2008 to 45.8% in 2013. Our
model predicts that Movistar Mexico's EBITDA margin will rise significantly from
25.8% in 2008 to 42.4% in 2013.
* However, we expect that the largest operator, Telcel, will see its EBITDA
margin decrease slightly from 52.4% in 2008 to 52.1% in 2013.
* Also, EBITDA margins at Iusacell and Nextel will decline to 19.3% and 33.8%
respectively in 2013.

Companies Mentioned:

* Telcel (AMX)
* Iusacell
* Movistar Mexico (TEF)
* Nextel

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/e85bc4/2q09_mexico_mobile.

Research and Markets, Ltd.
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax from USA: 646-607-1907
Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716

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