Research and Markets: Wireless Subscribers in Italy to Reach 91.8 Million with TIM and Vodafone Losing Market Shares to Wind and Hutchison Over the Next 5 Years

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6c0e6b/2q09_italy_mobile) has
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "2Q09 Italy
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013" to their offering.

Total wireless subscribers in Italy to reach 91.8 million with TIM and Vodafone
losing market shares to Wind and Hutchison over the next five years

Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 65 operational and financial
metrics for Italy's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the
industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013.
We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and
ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Italy include: TIM, Vodafone, Wind, and
3 (Hutchison). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are
available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+
mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Italian operators experience slowdown in subscriber growth

* +1.2% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008

ARPU growth is improving in Italy, but still in negative territory

* -1.4% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing

* +5.6% operator-wide average MOU growth in 4Q.2008

TIM enjoys positive EBITDA growth

* +5.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total subscriber accounts in Italy to reach 91.8 million in 2013

* We forecast that total subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 90.5
million in 2008 to 91.8 million in 2013.
* TIM will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in the country over the
next five years, but we expect that TIM's subscriber base will decline from 34.8
million in 2008 to 33.9 million in 2013.
* Vodafone will be the second largest mobile operator with 30.2 million
subscriber accounts in 2013. Wind will be the third with 17.71 million in 2013,
according to our model.

TIM's market share to decline over the next five years

* Our model predicts that TIM's subscriber market share will decline from 38.5%
in 2008 to 37.0% in 2013.
* Also, we expect that Vodafone will see its market share decline from 33.2% in
2008 to 32.9% in 2013.
* On the other hand, we forecast that Wind's market share will increase from
18.7% to 19.3%, and 3 (Hutchison)'s share will rise from 9.7% to 10.2% over the
forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPU levels in Italy will be falling from 2009 to 2013

* Our forecasting model predicts that the average ARPU in Italy will decline
from euro20.51 in 2008 to euro18.41 in 2013.
* We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone and Wind will be declining over the
next five years to reach euro18.14 and euro17.30, respectively in 2013.
* However, we forecast that TIM's monthly ARPU will increase from euro20.14 in
2008 to euro23.95 in 2013. We also predict that 3 (Hutchison)'s monthly ARPU
will rise from euro18.92 in 2008 to euro19.75 in 2013.

Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be deteriorating over the next five years

* We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as
EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline over the next several years from 42.0% in
2008 to 37.5% in 2013. In particular, we expect that Vodafone's EBITDA margin
will decline significantly from 45.9% in 2008 to 37.4% in 2013.
* Wind's EBITDA margin will also decline from 45.4% to 44.7% while TIM's EBITDA
margin increases from 44.7% to 46.1% over the forecast period, 2008-2013.

Companies Mentioned:

* TIM
* Vodafone
* Wind
* 3 (Hutchison)

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6c0e6b/2q09_italy_mobile

Research and Markets
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax from USA: 646-607-1907
Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716

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