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Fitch Takes Various Actions on Guam Economic Development & Commerce Authority, Series 2007
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)-- Fitch Ratings affirms two and downgrades one class from Guam Economic Development and Commerce Authority, Tobacco Settlement asset-backed bonds, series 2007, as follows: --$17,505,000 series 2007A current interest turbo term bonds due June 1, 2032 affirmed at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable; --$16,070,000 series 2007A current interest turbo term bonds due June 1, 2047 affirmed at 'BBB+'; Outlook Negative; --$3,407,077 series 2007B capital appreciation turbo term bonds June 1, 2057 downgraded to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative. The various actions are based on the level of stress each class is able to withstand as indicated by Fitch's new breakeven cash flow model. The model indicates, for each class of bonds, the level of the annual Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) payment percent change the trust would be able to sustain and still pay the bond in full by the legal final date. The base case 'B' corresponds to a 1% increase in the MSA payment received by the trust every year. The 'BBB' category corresponds to an annual MSA payment decline of 1.25%. The cash flow model accounts for the amount of the latest reported MSA payment that the transaction has received, the capital structure, the reserve account, and the bonds' legal final dates. The bond payments are also tied to the tobacco companies making MSA payments. Tobacco settlement bonds can be rated up to 'BBB+' based on Fitch's view of the whole tobacco industry and the executory nature of the MSA. In the event of a bankruptcy of a tobacco company, Fitch believes there is an incentive for the company to continue to make payments under the MSA. The 2007A bond due in 2032 is being affirmed at 'BBB+' with a Stable Outlook which is consistent with the model output. The 2007A bond due in 2047 is being affirmed at 'BBB+' and the 2007B bond is being downgraded to 'BB+'. Fitch has assigned a Negative Outlook to both bonds as the breakeven levels are indicative of lower ratings and the bonds may be downgraded depending on the amount of the future MSA payments received by the trust. Guam Economic Development and Commerce Authority, Tobacco Settlement asset-backed bonds, series 2007 bonds are secured by the pledged payments made under the MSA. The pledged payments consist of Guam's share of perpetual annual payments and strategic contribution payments by the original participating manufacturers (OPMs) and subsequent participating manufacturers (SPMs). The OPMs at the time of the original agreement were Philip Morris USA, Inc.; R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company; Brown & Williamson Tobacco Corporation; and Lorillard Tobacco Company. The amount of annual MSA payments received by the trust are mainly affected by the tobacco consumption level and inflation rate, as well as state specific adjustments, as specified in the MSA. Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site. Fitch Ratings, New York Aoto Kenmochi, +1-212-908-0867 Cynthia Ullrich, +1-212-908-0609 Stefanie Leung, +1-212-980-0826 Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278 sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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