Honduras coup holds few risks for Latin leftists

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Strong U.S. support for ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has sharply reduced the chances that the military coup there could reignite ideological tensions in Latin America or encourage similar moves against other leftist governments.

But a failure to match the words with action to help restore the leftist to the presidency could hand a propaganda victory to his fellow socialist leaders in Latin America and damage U.S. efforts to rebuild its leadership in the region.

The apparently weak footing of the Honduras coup in the face of a broad regional consensus against it means it is unlikely to spark similar moves in the historically coup-prone region, analysts said.

"This coup is a failure ... because the world has changed and it was clear before they did it that they wouldn't get support from anyone in the hemisphere," said Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research think tank in Washington. "I don't think it will encourage anyone."

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a foe of U.S. trade and foreign policy in Latin America, has threatened military action in Honduras to restore Zelaya and rallied his leftist bloc since the weekend coup, casting the crisis as an attack on democracy by imperialist forces.

U.S. President Barack Obama joined Latin American leaders on Monday in condemning the coup as illegal, marking a contrast to 2002 when Washington went against the regional consensus by initially welcoming a coup attempt against Chavez himself.

'STEALING THE SHOW'

"Part of the reason why the U.S. will come out so strongly against it has to do with the intention of preventing Hugo Chavez from stealing the show," said Kevin Casas-Zamora of the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.

He added, "If Zelaya is put back in power, Chavez won't be able to claim the victory for his Bolivarian revolution," a term inspired by 19th century independence hero Simon Bolivar that Chavez uses to describe his push to remake Venezuela as a socialist nation.

Chavez, who blamed former U.S. President George W. Bush for the 2002 coup in which he was briefly ousted, said he wants a probe into any role the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency may have played in Zelaya's ouster.

The CIA has been involved in toppling past leftist governments in Latin America. The White House has said there was no U.S. role in Zelaya's ouster.

A former soldier who himself once led a failed coup attempt in Venezuela, Chavez knows he has enemies who could be emboldened by a successful overthrow of Zelaya in Honduras.

Chavez has been harsh with new mayors and governors elected last year, stripping them of income and power. Some in Venezuela fear that by humiliating the opposition in that country, Chavez may be increasing the credibility of radical elements who believe in removing him by force.

Evo Morales, the fellow socialist president of Bolivia, has faced unrest and strong opposition from conservative business groups and politicians in his country, and police recently uncovered what Morales described as an assassination plot against him.

Zelaya was detained and sent into exile in a dispute over his push to allow a Honduran president to stay in power longer than that country's constitution allows -- a tactic that other leftist leaders such as Chavez and Morales have also used.

Rather than signaling a warning for leftist Latin American governments about pushing constitutional changes too far, the Honduran coup is an example of the risks of doing so without enough political and military support, analysts said.

The near unanimous diplomatic backing for Zelaya, whose push to change the constitution was seen as undemocratic by critics, could shield other leaders in the region from similar criticism in the future, said Chris Sabatini of the U.S.-based Americas Society-Council of the Americas think tank.

"The unconstitutional act being punished is the coup d'etat, not the death by a thousand cuts that comes before -- the erosion of democratic institutions," Sabatini said.

'SUBTLE SIGNALS'

Weisbrot and other analysts said the coup leaders would be looking for any signs of ambivalence in the U.S. stance that could signal that Washington is willing to allow a political outcome without Zelaya's return.

"This government has probably got a plan to hold out for (the) rest of the term," Weisbrot said, referring to Honduran interim President Roberto Micheletti's intention to retain control through a November 29 presidential election.

"They are going to be looking for subtle signals from this (Obama) administration about what they should do."

Obama, saying that Zelaya was the only legitimate Honduran president, said he would work with the Organization of American States and other international institutions to restore Zelaya to power and "see if we can resolve this in a peaceful way."

Both Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have explicitly referred to Zelaya's ouster as a "coup." But Clinton said the administration was not formally designating it as a military coup for now, a step that would force a cut-off of most U.S. aid to Honduras.

A senior U.S. official who spoke on condition he not be named said that by holding off on a legal determination that a coup has taken place, Washington was trying to provide space for a negotiated settlement.

"Hillary Clinton seems a little less out front than Obama on this ... it will make the U.S. look extremely weak if they cannot march this back," said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

"The fact is the U.S. says Zelaya is the legitimate president and a lot of us are aware of the kind of influence that the U.S. should be projecting with the people who carried out the coup."

(Additional reporting by Frank-Jack Daniel in Caracas)

(Editing by Todd Benson and Will Dunham)