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INSTANT VIEW: Alcoa posts smaller-than-expected Q2 loss

NEW YORK | Wed Jul 8, 2009 4:47pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alcoa Inc posted a second-quarter loss on Wednesday -- its third in three quarters -- as aluminum demand remained weak, especially in the auto industry, and the price of the metal was depressed despite a recent rally.

The following are market comments on the results:

COMMENTS:

CHARLES LIEBERMAN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF ADVISORS

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC IN PARAMUS, NEW JERSEY

"Clearly better than expected, better numbers on earnings, a loss of 26 cents excluding items versus 38 cents loss expected. Better on revenues -- $4.2 billion versus $3.9 billion expected. Debt-to-capital ratio dropped 80 basis points, so they reduced leverage a bit.

"I would say this was definitely a better number than the consensus across the board and certainly in keeping with the suggestion with the CEO implying that things were not so terrible. I'm sure (the CEO) is going to talk specifically about what the order book looks like, that will be the re-linearization of how the current quarter is likely to go. My own sense of it is that manufacturing companies should do a lot better in the third-quarter simply because the inventory liquidation we saw in the first half of the year was huge, it was absolutely huge.

"So manufacturing companies have to increase production have to increase production just to stop inventory liquidation. We already have auto companies coming out with announcements of increases in production plants for cars. And that's just indicative of the same process pretty much throughout manufacturing."

BRIAN HICKS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER OF U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS

"At first glance it looks constructive. My sense is that they were able to do better than expected from cost savings. Year-over-year production is down, and down sequentially as well, but it looks like they were able to contain costs.

"Coupled with the positive comments the CEO made yesterday, the quarter looks constructive and it appears that demand is starting to come out of trough levels and clearly Alcoa will benefit from that as we start to see somewhat of an uptick in demand.

"In terms of base metals, we're more constructive on copper as opposed to aluminum, there's still a lot of headwinds with respect to aluminum in regards to inventories."

MIN YE, EQUITY ANALYST, MORNINGSTAR IN CHICAGO

"The top-line looked better-than-expected. I think it's a result of better aluminum prices in the second quarter, and also input costs have come down pretty dramatically in the second quarter, so that probably helped as well.

"Aluminum fundamentals are still pretty weak because inventory is really high, and there's also plenty of excess capacity around the world. On the supply side, we're just seeing some stabilization, we're not seeing a quick rebound. U.S. auto sales are not recovering dramatically ... but the rate of deceleration has definitely slowed.

"If you look at prices, they have pretty much stabilized. It looks like the trend is the worst is over, and the next two quarters may still be a challenge, but it's not going to be grossly worse."

STEPHEN MASSOCCA, MANAGING DIRECTOR, WEDBUSH MORGAN, SAN FRANCISCO

"It's a beat. Assuming guidance is good, my guess is the stock will trade up, and take the market with it. We're due for a bounce; markets are oversold.

"I think it's what we're going to see more of. Managements have sandbagged estimates, putting numbers out there that they think they can clear."

CHARLES BRADFORD, PARTNER, AFFILIATED RESEARCH GROUP LLC IN NEW YORK

"I've gotten the feeling over the last few days that they are doing a better job cutting costs, and that's what drives the numbers. The difference is costs and that's a big deal."

(Reporting by Matthew Daily, Braden Reddall, Anna Driver, Caroline Valetkevitch and Chuck Mikolajczak)

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