Gazprom advances on Shtokman; analysts warn of delay

* First equipment delivered for Shtokman

* Analysts say meeting launch deadline will be tough

By Denis Pinchuk

VYBORG, Russia, July 10 (Reuters) - Gazprom (GAZP.MM) this week took delivery of the first equipment for its Shtokman gas field in the Russian Arctic, but analysts say the company faces a huge challenge to launch the $20 billion-plus project on time.

Reduced demand in the United States, the planned destination for half of Shtokman's gas, could persuade Gazprom and partners to delay the start of the technically challenging project beyond 2013, especially given the economic slowdown, analysts said.

Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, said he believes the launch could even be delayed by a decade.

"A year ago, (Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei) Miller forecast an oil price of $250 a barrel in 2009. I fear the Shtokman project was based on those sorts of prices," he said.

Shtokman, with reserves totalling 3.8 trillion cubic metres, is one of the largest gas fields in the world. Its first stage alone will demand investment of about $22 billion from Gazprom and its partners, StatoilHydro (STL.OL) and Total (TOTF.PA).

Gazprom will scale back investments due to the economic slowdown, but the company has said priority projects -- including Shtokman -- will not be affected. [ID:nLA696093]

The Vyborg shipbuilding plant, close to Russia's second city of St Petersburg, this week supplied the base for the first drilling platform at Shtokman. U.S. company National Oilwell Varco Inc (NOV.N) and South Korea's Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KS) will supply more equipment in the next few months. "There are no postponements. We are working to plan," said Yuri Shamalov, head of the Gazflot company that is building the platform.

U.S. IMPORTS SQUEEZED

The Shtokman field is located in the often stormy Barents Sea, about 600 km (375 miles) from the coast, presenting significant technical challenges to the project's engineers.

Georgy Poryadin, chairman of the board at the Vyborg dockyards, said about 35 platforms would be required for all four phases of Shtokman.

But any decline in world gas consumption is unlikely to boost the attractiveness of the project, which will ship gas by pipeline and by tanker in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"The demand curve for gas has moved a little lower. It's not simply a short-term drop in demand, but a structural shift over the medium term," said Lev Snykov, analyst with VTB Capital. "Over the course of the year, the company might rethink the timetable," Snykov said, although he added this would not mean the project would be halted.

Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis said: "American imports are being squeezed by growth in domestic production. In Asia, it will be difficult to compete with LNG from Qatar."

Gazprom might have to be content with a smaller share of the U.S. market than planned. Troika Dialog analyst Valery Nesterov said: "If Gazprom was earlier chasing 15-20 percent of the American market, it will now be satisfied with 5-10 percent."