Afghan key to real boost in Russia, U.S. ties

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia and the United States must still overcome deep suspicions after last week's summit if they hope to reset ties and work together on an agenda that sees U.S. President Barack Obama heavily dependant on Moscow.

Unlike the Cold War, when Washington backed Islamist rebels against Russian forces in Afghanistan, Moscow and Washington have strong common interests in the region, both eager to avert restoration of Taliban rule in Kabul. For Washington, however, with troops on the ground, the concern is more pressing.

Gone are the days when the only overarching agreement between a communist Russia and a capitalist United States was on a need to avert nuclear war. But suggestions on both sides that the old Cold War rivalry is history appear premature.

At last week's summit Obama won the right for up to 4,500 U.S. military planes to cross Russian airspace to Afghanistan for one year, a key policy objective, said Fyodor Lyukanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs.

The ex-Soviet Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan, in what Moscow sees as its sphere of influence, also announced agreement to keep a U.S. air base there to support its Afghan operations.

"Obama needed to resolve very acute problems for the United States. Russia is not a problem at present, but Russia might be instrumental to resolve other problems in Iran and Afghanistan."

Moscow, to be sure, also wants to prevent a resurgent Taliban expanding influence to Central Asia and to halt any spread of Islamist involvement in the north Caucasus. There are signs of increased activity by Islamist groups in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

In return for cooperation on these pressing topics, Moscow anticipates movement from the White House on its own red lines - future NATO expansion eastwards into ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia, and an understanding of a Russian sphere of influence.

HEAVY PRICE

In his speeches, Obama had skillfully targeted his language toward both American and Russian audiences, said Lyukanov.

"The main idea was not to cause harm, but instead to find ways to use Russia in a couple of problems," he said.

Obama also discussed Iran's nuclear program and North Korea with Moscow, which has an influential role in both countries that contrasts with Washington's lack of leverage.

Two days later both signed joint statements at the G8 summit on both countries; evidence, say Kremlin watchers, that they can work together.

But others warn that Washington may pay a heavy price to Moscow in exchange for its cooperation and said comments by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the G8 showed that not much may have changed in the relationship so far.

Medvedev repeated his position that Moscow felt 'threatened' by U.S. plans for an anti-missile system in Europe. The comments showed how U.S. President Barack Obama had papered over the cracks in exchange for aid on Afghanistan and Iran.

"Medvedev's comments on missile defense shows clearly there was no agreement on the substances of the differences that exist with Russia," said Yevgeny Volk, of the Heritage Foundation in Moscow.

Obama's avoidance of overt criticism on Russia's stance in Georgia may also be counter-productive and encourage aggression toward Tbilisi's President Mikheil Saakashvili, said Volk.

"Obama's connivance toward Russia could encourage Moscow to take a more aggressive policy toward Saakashvili. It's well-known that both Putin and Medvedev hate Saakashvilli and want a regime change there."

"Many acute difference were artificially circumvented by both Obama and Medvedev. The devil is in the detail and I think the details which are important to resetting relations were somehow left aside," said Volk.

Apart from meeting Medvedev, Obama also received a lengthy lecture from the powerful Russian Prime Minister and ex-President Vladimir Putin on U.S. failings.

Pro-Kremlin lawmaker and foreign policy expert Andrei Klimov stressed the significance both of Putin's continuing influence inside the country and of the missile defense issue as a Russian policy concern that Obama must satisfy.

"Mr Putin, let's say, is the leader of the Russian nation, although it's not an official title," he said.

That said, Medvedev as Russia's President, remained an important element in the power equation.

"Let me repeat the position of Russia. It's very easy. We want to see more done, for example about the missile system. Please don't forget we are still concerned about it."

Klimov and other experts in Moscow doubt new nuclear arms cuts can be agreed this year before the current START Treaty runs out, the other main achievement presented after Obama's visit.

The new Treaty would also incorporate some of the tough verification procedures missing from the current Moscow Treaty but also reduce the number of warheads by a few hundred.

"I'm not sure they can make it by December 5 because it's very complicated," said Roland Timerbayev, former Russian Ambassador and chairman of the center for Political Studies Russia (PIR), Moscow, who participated in earlier nuclear treaty negotiations.

"If you have been following relations between the U.S. and Russia, it's been the same pattern with Democrats for decades - it normally starts very well....but I will tell you frankly I would prefer to negotiate with Republicans and all Russian negotiators prefer them, because they are not afraid of Congress but Democrats lose their case there."

(Reporting by Conor Sweeney; Editing by Ralph Boulton)