Q+A: Islamic militancy expert Sidney Jones on Indonesia bombs

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesian police and analysts have linked suicide attacks on two luxury Jakarta hotels to Islamist militants, possibly a breakaway faction of the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) group linked to Malaysian extremist Noordin Top.

The JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton bombings on Friday are a severe blow for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who was re-elected this month in a landslide victory.

Sidney Jones, a Jakarta-based expert on Islamist militants at the International Crisis Group, answered some questions from Reuters on the attacks and here are excerpts from the interview.

Q - What are the hallmarks that indicate this is linked to Noordin Top?

A - The most important hallmark is the suicide bombing as a method of attack and also the targeting of iconic Western symbols, both of those are associated more with Noordin than with mainstream Jemaah Islamiah.

Q - Would that mean it wasn't necessarily his direct involvement, it was a member of his group?

A - So it's possible to have both a courier or a go-between reporting back to Noordin and kind of proxy group operating on his behalf. But some of the suggestions I've heard just in the last few days suggest that there's actually an inner circle of Noordin that may have been involved in this bombing.

Q - What will be the impact on foreign perceptions of Indonesia's security and will there be any political ramifications for Yudhoyono?

A - I don't think there are political ramifications for Yudhoyono. I think the tourism industry would be hurt again. I'm not sure about the business impact, there wasn't very much after the first Marriott bombing (in 2003) but maybe because executives were targeted or have become the victims of this one there'll be an impact there.

Q - What are you thoughts on the level of sophistication of these attacks?

A - I think this one would have required really long-term planning because they must have first surveyed the targets repeatedly. They would have had to have raised the funds including the funds for staying at five-star luxury hotels. So my guess is that this one was more expensive than some of the earlier bombings. And we know that the Australian embassy bomb (in 2004), for example, probably cost around $8,000-$9,000.

Q - We've just had the elections and Manchester United, a very popular team, were due to play. Do you think the timing was carefully planned as well?

A - It's very difficult if you look at past explanations of the bombings here to target an attack for a specific time, you can do it in a rough general area, but to target it for example for the Manchester United team's arrival would be very difficult. So that's probably not very likely. It might have been possible to try and get an attack around election time, but in the past Noordin's group hasn't been particularly worried by Indonesian political dynamics and they tend to attack when they are ready to attack.

Q - By going after a target that's been attacked before and clearly had fairly high security (the Marriott) does this suggest there is a clear message from the perpetrators that they can get you anywhere?

A - I think that's got to be one of their objectives. The other is simply 'to make Western nations tremble'. That was the phrase that Noordin's group used after the Australian embassy bombing.

Q - Do you think these attacks reflect more careful targeting in that it seems more foreigners were killed this time?

A - I think again this group would have tried to learn from it's mistakes in the past. They would have almost certainly tried to reduce the number of Muslims killed.

Q - Do you think this is likely to be an isolated attack or could mean a new wave of attacks.

A - It's impossible to know, but I think the police have got to be on the trail of the perpetrators because there was a lot of activity by the police in Cilacap (Central Java) in the weeks before this attack took place. And there must be some reason for the intensified activities so maybe they were on the verge of making arrests when this happened.

Q - President Yudhoyono hinted at a press conference that he saw himself as a possible target?

A - It's true that many of the radical groups that we know to still be active frequently talk about Indonesian officials as "thaghut," that is anti-Islamic, and they see those officials as being enemies of Islam because they refuse to apply Islamic law. But it's doubtful you would have an attack on a major western target like this and have it simultaneously be also an attack on Indonesian officials.

Q - If it does turn out to be Islamic militants, what are the sort of learning points for authorities?

A - I think what it underscores that there needs to be a lot more attention to the very small number of Islamic schools that we know have become centers of communication for these groups. It's not so much what is taught at these schools or who the teachers are it's that there's a small number of schools that are affiliated to the militant network where fugitives are likely to come and seek refuge where there's likely to be interaction between seriously dangerous extremists.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)