UPDATE 2-Daily Mail says ad decline slows, visibility low

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Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:36am EDT

* Ad declines slow in fiscal Q3 but July "disappointing"

* Total sales down 13 pct, B2B down 3 pct

* Shares fall after recent rallies

(Adds executive, analyst comments, shares)

By Georgina Prodhan

LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - British newspaper publisher Daily Mail & General Trust (DMGOa.L) said the decline in advertising revenue at its national and regional titles slowed during the June quarter but forward visibility remained low.

National newspaper ad revenues fell 12 percent in the quarter to end-June, compared with a 23 percent decline the previous quarter. British regional newspaper ad revenues fell 33 percent, compared with 36 percent a quarter earlier.

Daily Mail shares fell more than 3 percent on Thursday, after a strong rally since late June.

"It's not pleasant, it's still tough, but we don't come into work every morning wondering what's going to happen today quite so much as we did a few months ago," Chief Financial Officer Peter Williams told journalists on a conference call.

He said the group's trading remained in line with market consensus for a full-year adjusted pretax profit of 180 million pounds ($295 million).

The group's total revenues for its fiscal third quarter fell 13 percent to 520 million pounds ($852 million), and were saved from a steeper decline by the company's business-to-business operations, where sales slipped only 3 percent.

As well as its flagship Daily Mail newspaper -- Britain's leading mid-market tabloid -- the company also publishes about 100 regional newspapers, owns separately listed financial publisher Euromoney (ERM.L) and runs international exhibitions.

Euromoney reported results on Wednesday. [ID:nLL720171]

DISAPPOINTING JULY

Daily Mail said national newspaper advertising revenues had been disappointing in July so far, but remained hard to predict from week to week. Retail ad revenue grew, thanks to intense rivalry between British supermarkets, and travel also grew.

Shares in Daily Mail were down 3.2 percent to 300.75 pence by 0830 GMT, the leading decliner in the European media index .SXMP, which fell 0.8 percent. The shares have risen 15 percent since the start of the year.

UBS analyst Alastair Reid said the stock looked expensive at 7 times 2010 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), especially in light of competition from freesheet Metro to the Associated national newspaper division.

"We believe this still remains expensive given risks to dollar-exposed later cycle B2B assets, the dividend and Associated profitability as the Metro licence is renewed," he wrote in a note.

Gannett (GCI.N), the largest U.S. newspaper group and publisher of USA Today, last week reported an 18 percent drop in quarterly revenue, and media group Group M forecast that British newspaper ad spending would fall 26 percent this year.

Earlier on Thursday, French advertising group Publicis (PUBP.PA) said it saw a return to sales growth in 2010. [ID:nLL425958]

Daily Mail said it cut its net debt, which at more than 3 times core earnings has been causing investors some concern, to 1.142 billion pounds from 1.227 billion during the quarter, mainly due to sterling's appreciation against the U.S. dollar. ($1=.6103 Pound) (Reporting by Georgina Prodhan; editing by Will Waterman and Simon Jessop)

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