FACTBOX-Japan stock winners, losers if Democrats win election

TOKYO, July 23 (Reuters) - Healthcare, trucking and education firms are likely to benefit if Japan's opposition Democratic Party overturns more than half a century of almost unbroken rule by the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party in August elections.

Opinion polls show the LDP of Prime Minister Taro Aso is at risk of being ousted in the election on August 30.

Construction firms and general contractors could lose out under a Democratic government, analysts say.

Here are some of the stock market's potential winners and losers if the Democrats come to power.

The benchmark Nikkei average .N225 had a one-year forward price-earnings ratio of 22.1 as of Tuesday, compared with 14.2 for the S&P500 .SPX, Thomson Reuters data shows.

----------------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: STRONGER SAFETY NET

The Democrats want a stronger social safety net for Japan's fast-ageing society and want to issue a monthly allowance for each child.

WINNERS: Healthcare, nursing care and stocks related to children.

- Benesse Corporation (9783.OS), which runs cram schools and offers other educational services and nursing care, said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a manager at SMBC Friend Securities.

Benesse, which has gained 10.7 percent so far this year, has a forward p/e of 19.6, similar to 20.4 for U.S. education company DeVry Inc (DV.N), which has a similar market capitalisation.

- Watami Co Ltd (7522.T), which runs restaurants but also manages nursing care facilities and makes box lunches for senior citizens, said Masayoshi Okamoto at Jujiya Securities.

- Watami, which has fallen almost 19 percent this year, has a forward p/e of 25.3, just below 28.7 for Colowide Co Ltd (7616.T), another operator of pub restaurants.

- Market watchers also tipped Pigeon Corp (7956.T), a maker of baby care products, which has risen 34 percent this year and has an estimated p/e of 23.4, higher than 19.6 for household products giant Kao Corp (4452.T)

-------------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: SCRAP HIGHWAY TOLLS

The Democrats would permanently eliminate tolls on Japan's network of highways, going further than the government, which introduced a discount earlier this year as part of stimulus measures.

WINNERS: Trucking and shipping firms would benefit from cost savings. Chain stores and restaurants near toll highways would gain from an expected increase in traffic.

- McDonald's Holdings Co (Japan) 2702.Q and car goods stores such as Autobacs Seven Inc (9832.OS), said Shinichi Ichikawa, chief strategist at the equity research division of Credit Suisse in Tokyo.

McDonald's Japan, which has lost 3.3 percent this year, has a forward p/e of 18.6 compared to 15 for its parent McDonald's Corp (MCD.N). Starbucks Coffee Japan Ltd 2712.OJ has an estimated p/e of 25 and has lost 0.8 percent this year.

Autobacs Seven has gained 66 percent this year and carries a forward p/e of 22.8 compared with 32.6 for U.S. firm Penske Auto Group (PAG.N), which has a similar market capitalisation.

- Nippon Express (9062.T), a trucking firm, which has gained 6 percent this year, trades at a multiple of 22.9 for forward earnings against 24.6 for J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.O), another major international trucker.

LOSERS: East Japan Railway (9020.T) and other railway firms, Jujiya's Okamoto said. JR East's forward p/e is 16.6 against 15.5 for Union Pacific (UNP.N).

------------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: CLEANER ENERGY

The Democrats want to promote clean energy and reduce greenhouse gases. They are expected to continue government incentives to buy hybrid cars and energy-efficient appliances.

WINNERS: Carmakers. Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) and Honda Motor Co (7267.T), both makers of hybrid autos, jumped after a tax incentive was introduced in April but have subsequently fallen back.

- Battery makers, such as GS Yuasa Corp (6674.T), which are currently under pressure after a spike earlier this year but which have strong long-term potential, said Takashi Ushio of Marusan Securities.

GS Yuasa has risen 49 percent this year and has a forward p/e of 106.9 compared to an average of 47.8 for the domestic electrical components-and-equipment sector.

- Electrical appliance makers, makers of solar panels, and firms supporting alternative energy. Japan Wind Development (2766.T) is one such firm, wrote analyst Peter Eadon-Clarke in a Macquarie Research report. The company has a forward p/e of 36.62.

---------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: CUT WASTEFUL SPENDING, RAISE MINIMUM WAGE

The Democrats want to eliminate wasteful spending. The LDP has used public works projects to pump-prime the economy. The Democrats also want the minimum wage to rise.

LOSERS: Construction firms and general contractors. These are already under pressure due to the recession and some could suffer further if the Democrats axe public works projects, said Naomi Fink, global strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The construction subindex .ICNST.T is roughly flat for the year. Manufacturers could face higher labour costs if the minimum wage is increased, said Credit Suisse's Ichikawa.

-------------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: RESTRICTIONS ON CONSUMER LENDERS

Media reports say the Democrats may tighten restrictions on consumer lending firms. The reports have not specified how.

LOSERS: Such policies could hit Takefuji Corp 8564.T and Aiful (8515.T). Takefuji has dropped 39 percent this year while Aiful has gained 17 percent.

They have a forward p/e of 7.0 and 9.8, respectively, much lower than the consumer finance sector's average forward p/e of 14.3.

---------------------------------------------------------

* POLICY: RAISE TAX ON CIGARETTES

The Democrats want to raise tobacco taxes to discourage smoking among Japanese.

LOSERS: Remarks to this effect by a Democratic Party official in May sent Japan Tobacco (2914.T) shares tumbling 7 percent the next day. They are down 7.1 percent this year.

Its forward p/e is 19.7 against 14.2 for U.S. giant Philip Morris. (PM.N) (Editing by Neil Fullick)