PREVIEW-AstraZeneca expected to raise 2009 outlook

* AstraZeneca Q2 results, July 30, 1000 GMT

* Core EPS seen up 13 percent, sales down 3 percent

* Quarter helped by absence of generics to key drugs

* Hike in current $5.15-5.45 EPS range for 2009 likely

By Ben Hirschler

LONDON, July 27 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca (AZN.L) looks set to
raise its full-year earnings guidance when it reports results on
Thursday as it benefits from windfall sales of key drugs that
remain free of generic competition.

The group will also book extra sales of H1N1 swine flu
vaccine in the second half of the year, although the boost from
the flu pandemic will be less than for larger vaccine makers
like Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L).

The second-quarter numbers should underscore the recovery
story at the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker, which aims to bring a
batch of new medicines to market after struggling with a barren
new drug pipeline since 2003.

AstraZeneca and its partner Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) are
also expecting to hear back from U.S. regulators on their new
diabetes drug Onglyza on Thursday, with an approval highly
likely after a positive recommendation from experts in April.

Still, some analysts caution that widely predicted forecasts
of raised 2009 earnings guidance may leave little scope for
upside in a stock that has already outperformed the European
sector .SXDP by nearly 20 percent in the past four months.

"Given the lofty expectations, we struggle to see what sort
of results the company can report and what sort of upgrade to
outlook it can provide on Thursday to meet expectations," said
Panmure analyst Savvas Neophytou.

The group's current forecast for 2009 core earnings per
share (EPS) is $5.15-5.45 but some analysts already forecast a
result above $5.60.

For the three months to end-June, analysts expect underlying
earnings per share to increase 13 percent, helped by the
continued absence of generic challngers to heart drug Toprol XL,
asthma drug Pulmicort and cancer medicine Casodex in the United
States.

Cholesterol fighter Crestor is also expected to have had a
strong quarter with sales up 20 percent at around $1.1 billion.

Foreign exchange swings will negatively affect revenue, as
AstraZeneca reports in dollars, but currencies should help
profit margins, since the group has a large cost base in Britain
and Sweden.

The table below shows analyst forecasts for AstraZeneca's
results, as polled by Reuters:

Q2 SALES CORE EPS*

($ billion) (cents)

Mean 7.72 1.41

Median 7.68 1.40

High 8.12 1.52

Low 7.48 1.25

Sample size 17 17

Year ago 7.96 1.25

* Core EPS excludes restructuring costs and charges related
to the 2007 acquisition of MedImmune