The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) For Mexico and Related
Composite Economic Indexes for May 2009

NEW YORK, July 30 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico increased 2.4 percent and The Conference Board
Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 0.9 percent in May.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased sharply again in May.
Oil
prices, net insufficient inventories, stock prices, and the real
effective exchange rate (inverted) all made large positive
contributions, more than offsetting the large decline in the
construction component of industrial production. Between November 2008
and May 2009, the leading economic index increased 1.5 percent (a 3.1
percent annual rate), a reversal from the decrease of 13.1 percent (a
-24.5 percent annual rate) during the previous six-month period. In
addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained
widespread in recent months.
-- The Conference Board CEI for Mexico continued to decline in May.
During
the previous six months, the coincident economic index declined 5.8
percent (a -11.2 percent annual rate), faster than the decrease of 1.1
percent (a -2.1 percent annual rate) between May and November 2008.
Furthermore, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have
remained very widespread, with none of the components increasing in
the
past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined at a 21.5 percent annual
rate in the first quarter of 2009, following a decline of 9.8 percent
annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008.

-- The Conference Board LEI for Mexico, which declined precipitously
between July 2008 and February 2009, has increased sharply for the
past
three consecutive months. As a result, its six-month change has become
positive for the first time since August 2008. Concurrently, The
Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic
activity,
has been falling since June 2008. Although its decrease over the past
six months is the deepest since 1995, its rate of decline has slowed
somewhat in recent months. Taken together, the recent behavior of the
composite economic indexes suggests that the downturn in economic
activity is likely to continue in the near term, although the pace of
the contraction could moderate slightly.

LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the six components that make up The Conference
Board LEI for Mexico increased in May. The positive contributors to the index
-- from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one -- are the US
refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, net
insufficient inventories, stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, and
the (inverted) federal funds rate. The industrial production construction
component decreased in May.

With the 2.4 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now
stands at 106.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 3.0
percent in April and increased 1.4 percent in March. During the six-month
span through May, the index increased 1.5 percent, with five of the six
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the three components that make up The
Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in May. Industrial production,
number of people employed (as measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), and
retail sales all declined in May.

With the decrease of 0.9 percent in May, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico
now stands at 104.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased
0.3 percent in April and decreased 0.7 percent in March. During the six-month
span through May, the index decreased 5.8 percent, with none of the three
components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes
reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M.
July 27, 2009.

NOTES: With this release, none of the components in The Conference Board LEI
for Mexico were based on our estimates. None of the series in The Conference
Board CEI for Mexico were based on our estimates.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2009 6-month
Mar Apr May Nov. to May
Leading index 101.0 r 104.0 106.5
Percent Change 1.4 r 3.0 r 2.4 1.5
Diffusion 50.0 r 83.3 83.3 83.3

Coincident Index 105.9 105.6 r 104.6
Percent Change -0.7 -0.3 r -0.9 -5.8
Diffusion 66.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

The next release is scheduled for Friday, August 28, 2009 at 11:00 A.M. (ET)
In Mexico - Friday, August 28, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (CST)

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

SOURCE The Conference Board

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board, Indicator Program,
+1-212-339-0330, , Media, Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or Carol Courter,
+1-212-339-0232