U.S. Markets Ready to Roll After 'Shake, Rattle,' Virtus Strategist Says

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Thu Jul 30, 2009 11:02am EDT

Terranova says second half of 2009 echoes 2003 recovery; emerging markets,
high-yield bonds and commodities among asset classes in play



HARTFORD, Conn., July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The market recovery from
the current recession has begun, says Joe Terranova, chief market strategist
at Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS), and panelist on CNBC's Fast
Money.  In his most recent market commentary, Shake, Rattle, and Roll,
Terranova says investors should expect the market to play out much like it did
in 2003.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20090105/NEM020LOGO )

At the end of June, Terranova noted that market activity during March and
April marked the shake out of the "Armageddon Trade."  Despite the pullback
caused by government issuance of large amounts of debt, the markets are now
poised for a bounce back, which may resemble the market rebound of 2003. 

"Right now, we hear the same sort of thing: analysts are once again calling
for the deep dive," Terranova says.  "I don't see it.  I think many of these
so-called 'market experts' are still too focused on the headlines of January
and February about the challenged economy and the challenged consumer."

He likened the recovery pattern to the Big Joe Turner tune, "Shake, Rattle and
Roll," made famous by Bill Haley & His Comets in 1954. "The month of June was
highlighted by a rattle after a period of shake, but the roll is coming."

Terranova points out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a low of 7,500
in March 2003, caused in part by the SARS outbreak and the beginning of the
Iraq war.  Yet by year-end, despite the doom and gloom in analysts' forecasts,
the Dow still cracked 10,000.

Today's recovery is being sparked by solid performance in asset classes such
as emerging market equities, commodities, high-yield corporate bonds, and
currencies.

Terranova notes that emerging market stocks are up more than 40 percent year
to date, boosted in part by the stimulus package in China.  In addition, India
and Brazil, Chile, and other South American countries have been and should
continue to be a boon for investors over the next 12-18 months.  

"When there's activity in emerging markets, there are commodity plays,"
Terranova says, adding that investors should expect commodities to be "the
backbone of this recovery" for the next four years.  China's development, for
example, helped drive a bull market from 2004 to 2008 on the heels of a
staircase recession recovery in 2003, and Terranova thinks it's time for a
repeat from 2010 to 2014.

Terranova favors high-yield corporate bonds, which have returned as much as 35
percent to investors this year, and thinks investment-grade bonds may provide
a big opportunity, too.  "Clearly, the corporate bond sector is the place to
be if some sort of correction actually does transpire this year."

He also suggests more exposure to currencies.  He expects the greenback will
remain weak and investors who want to trade against the dollar should look to
commodity and emerging-market currencies.

Despite these opportunities, Terranova says that the outlook isn't all rosy. 
While he doesn't foresee inflation as a near-term threat and believes
corporate earnings are promising, he considers that the U.S.'s reliance on
foreign oil still remains a threat.  As long as the government drags its feet
on a new energy policy, it will slow the recovery. 

"The continued reluctance to designate natural gas as the primary bridge fuel
to a more renewable future does not bode well for this recovering economy. 
Until this administration develops a reasonable strategy, investment in energy
-- across the broad energy landscape -- remains one of the top themes for
investors," Terranova notes.

Get Terranova's full report here.

About Virtus Investment Partners
Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS) provides investment management
products and services to individuals and institutions. It operates a
multi-manager asset management business, comprising a number of individual
affiliated managers, each with a distinct investment style, autonomous
investment process and individual brand. Investors have an array of needs and
Virtus Investment Partners offers a variety of investment styles and multiple
disciplines to meet those needs. For more information visit www.virtus.com. 


SOURCE  Virtus Investment Partners

Matthew Kirdahy or Andrew Healy, both of Middleberg Communications,
+1-212-812-5665; or Joe Fazzino of Virtus Investment Partners,
+1-860-263-4725
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