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Q+A: What can Bill Clinton accomplish in North Korea?
WASHINGTON |
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Bill Clinton's surprise visit to North Korea and meeting with leader Kim Jong-il on Tuesday to try to win freedom for two jailed American journalists has raised speculation the trip might revive stalled nuclear negotiations.
Following are answers to questions about Clinton's visit to Pyongyang and what it might mean for strained U.S.-North Korean relations:
WHY BILL CLINTON AND NOT A SITTING U.S. OFFICIAL?
As a former head of state, Clinton has credibility with the face-conscious North Koreans, who hosted former President Jimmy Carter in a pivotal visit in 1994. Pyongyang looks at the Clinton era as a high-water mark in bilateral relations as a result of a 1994 nuclear agreement struck by the two sides and unprecedented exchanges of high-level visits. Interlocutors say North Koreans in pre-visit negotiations rejected suggested visits by other prominent Democratic Party figures, holding out for someone of the stature of a former president.
WHAT CAN CLINTON ACCOMPLISH IN PYONGYANG?
Clinton is unlikely to have agreed to such a risky visit without assurances that he could meet his main of objective of gaining the release of two U.S. journalists, Euna Lee and Laura Ling of U.S. media outlet Current TV, which was co-founded by Clinton's vice president Al Gore. They were arrested on the North Korea-China border in March and accused of illegal entry. A North Korean court sentenced both of them last month to 12 years hard labor for what it called grave crimes.
Clinton's talks with Kim also might help ease tensions between the United States after months of military provocations by the impoverished North, which has walked away from diplomatic talks on its nuclear weapons and earlier this year tested a series of missiles and a nuclear device.
The visit also offers the United States its first direct look at the increasingly frail-looking Kim, 67, who is thought to have suffered a stroke a year ago and whose health has triggered speculation that he has picked his third son to take over Asia's only communist dynasty. To assess Kim's health, a critical question, U.S. intelligence analysts have had to rely on images published by North Korean media and accounts by Chinese officials who have met Kim.
WHAT ARE THE RISKS OF THIS MISSION?
Although he is ostensibly visiting as a private citizen, a Clinton "breakthrough" on talks with North Korea could undermine an Obama administration vow to change the pattern of U.S. dealings with North Korea, which in the past had manufactured security crises to get American attention and was usually rewarded for merely showing up at diplomatic meetings. Beyond the risk of rewarding bad behavior by North Korea is the potential to weaken Washington's insistence that the venue for talks with Pyongyang must be the six-party negotiations that also involve China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.
If Clinton elicits a North Korean promise to return to talks, the Obama administration is likely to face pressure from China and Russia to ease up on implementing U.N. Security Council counterproliferation sanctions on the North. The sanctions should only be lifted when North Korea's nuclear proliferation threat is addressed and not merely on the resumption of talks.
Key U.S. allies South Korea and Japan, which both have politically sensitive concerns about citizens held in North Korea, also will be warily watching the Clinton visit for any signs that Washington might resort to bilateral dealings with Pyongyang in ways that neglect the interests of Seoul and Tokyo.
(Editing by Bill Trott)
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