FACTBOX-Looking over the drug industry patent cliff

Aug 10 (Reuters) - The pharmaceutical industry faces the
biggest wave of patent expiries in its history in the next few
years and many companies lack obvious replacements as today's
blockbusters lose exclusivity.

Cost cutting means earnings should hold up better than
revenues through the patent "cliff", but the traditionally
defensive sector faces a gruelling and uncertain period.

The following table shows consensus analyst expectations for
leading pharmaceutical companies through to 2013:

2009-2013 2009-2013 2009

EPS CHANGE REV CHANGE P/E
Roche (ROG.VX) +50 pct +17.5 pct 14.3
Novartis (NOVN.VX) +28 pct +24 pct 11.6
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) +13 pct +3 pct 10.0
Bristol-Myers (BMY.N) +3 pct -6.5 pct 10.9
Eli Lilly (LLY.N) -4.5 pct +6 pct 8.1
AstraZeneca (AZN.L) -7.5 pct -11 pct 8.4
Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) -14.5 pct -7.5 pct 7.5
Merck+Schering (MRK.N) -- +5 pct --
Pfizer+Wyeth (PFE.N) -- -9 pct --

Source: Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts

For a related analysis on prospects for the industry and
drugs in development, please click on [ID:nLV448481]

(Reporting by Ben Hirschler)