FACTBOX-Looking over the drug industry patent cliff

Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:07am EDT

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 Aug 10 (Reuters) - The pharmaceutical industry faces the
biggest wave of patent expiries in its history in the next few
years and many companies lack obvious replacements as today's
blockbusters lose exclusivity.
 Cost cutting means earnings should hold up better than
revenues through the patent "cliff", but the traditionally
defensive sector faces a gruelling and uncertain period.
 The following table shows consensus analyst expectations for
leading pharmaceutical companies through to 2013:
                       2009-2013        2009-2013       2009
                       EPS CHANGE       REV CHANGE      P/E
 Roche (ROG.VX)           +50 pct          +17.5 pct      14.3
 Novartis (NOVN.VX)       +28 pct          +24 pct        11.6
 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L)  +13 pct          +3 pct         10.0
 Bristol-Myers (BMY.N)    +3 pct           -6.5 pct       10.9
 Eli Lilly (LLY.N)        -4.5 pct         +6 pct          8.1
 AstraZeneca (AZN.L)      -7.5 pct         -11 pct         8.4
 Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) -14.5 pct        -7.5 pct        7.5
 Merck+Schering (MRK.N)    --              +5 pct          --
 Pfizer+Wyeth (PFE.N)      --              -9 pct          --
 Source: Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts
 For a related analysis on prospects for the industry and
drugs in development, please click on [ID:nLV448481]
 (Reporting by Ben Hirschler)

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