METALS-Copper settles lower as data raises demand doubts
* China copper imports fall nearly 15 percent in July
* Cheer from copper scrap imports to be short-lived
* Softer equities undermine metals market confidence (Changes headline, recasts, updates with New York closing copper prices, adds NEW YORK to dateline and analyst comments)
By Chris Kelly and Michael Taylor
NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Copper prices closed lower on Tuesday as mixed economic data from the United States and top consumer China raised concerns about the health of the global economy and its potential impact on metals demand.
Copper for September delivery HGU9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division fell 3.40 cents to settle at $2.7365 a lb.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper MCU3 ended the session at $6,030 a tonne, down $105 from the close on Monday, when it touched a 10-month high of $6,258 a tonne.
Economically sensitive copper prices extended their losses after the U.S. Commerce Department said inventories at wholesalers fell 1.7 percent in June, marking a 10th consecutive decline to the lowest levels in more than two years.
The wholesale inventories data was another reminder that the U.S. economy was not out of the woods just yet.
"I buy the idea that maybe financial Armageddon is gone, but I don't buy the idea that just because the data is less poor that we are completely out of the woods," said Zachary Oxman, managing director with TrendMax Futures in Encinitas, California.
"Less poor still means poor," he said.
Mixed data from China set the tone for the session as record inflows of the metal into the country ended with a near 15 percent decline to 406,612 tonnes in July from June. [ID:nHKG338126]
"The pause is quite healthy. People may be thinking that maybe China peaked in the second quarter," said Justin Lennon, analyst at Mitsui Bussan Commodities.
"China probably has enough in public and private stores to use as leverage to drive the price down ... What will also be bearish for commodity prices is money supply, which will probably not grow at the same level." [ID:nPEK336437]
China also reported below-forecast growth in factory output and investment, reminding financial markets that the world's third-largest economy was not yet back on solid footing. [ID:nLB633470]
A surge in imports of copper scrap cheered the market, but analysts said it was unlikely to last. [ID:nHKG338126]
"With better production numbers in the industrialized world, Japan specifically, we will likely see secondary market copper to start returning and I think we are seeing some of that," said Bart Melek, Global Commodity Strategist with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto.
"Secondary markets will squeeze out some of that copper from primary sources on the import side and we may see some downward price adjustments," he said.
UPSIDE SKEW
Aluminum, used in transport and packaging, ended down $42 at $1,930 a tonne MAL3, but is still up about 50 percent since April due partly to reviving activity in the auto sector. [ID:nLL175677]
Also behind the rise is the amount of aluminum -- about 70 percent of the record 4.56 million tonnes held in LME warehouses -- tied up in financing deals to release cash for producers.
"We expect some short-term factors that have lent particular support to aluminum and nickel prices to wane in coming months," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
"(But) we anticipate robust emerging market growth to remain supportive of metals demand, leaving risks to our base metals price and returns forecasts skewed to the upside."
Nickel MNI3 closed at $19,450 a tonne, down $750 from Monday when it hit an 11-month high of $20,475. It has been boosted by signs of restocking by stainless steel mills, which account for about two-thirds of global nickel demand.
Lead MPB3 ended at $1,800 a tonne from $1,874 on Monday, zinc MZN3 at $1,815 a tonne from $1,850, and tin MSN3 was untraded but bid at $14,650 from $14,750.
Focus in the tin market was on the dominant position holder which has bought tin for delivery in September and sold it for December. The premium for the September contract stands at around $450 compared with $1,000 on July 31. [ID:nL7149027]
Metal Prices at 1842 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct
move COMEX Cu 274.00 -2.65 -0.96 139.50 96.42 LME Alum 1939.00 -33.00 -1.67 1535.00 26.32 LME Cu 6045.00 -90.00 -1.47 3060.00 97.55 LME Lead 1801.00 -73.00 -3.90 999.00 80.28 LME Nickel 19598.00 -602.00 -2.98 11700.00 67.50 LME Tin 14650.00 -100.00 -0.68 10700.00 36.92 LME Zinc 1820.00 -30.00 -1.62 1208.00 50.66 SHFE Alu 15175.00 -115.00 -0.75 11540.00 31.50 SHFE Cu* 48600.00 -240.00 -0.49 23840.00 103.86 SHFE Zin 15070.00 -90.00 -0.59 10120.00 48.91 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Pratima Desai in London; Editing by Jim Marshall)
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