Radical Islam regeneration remains risk in Indonesia

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Capturing or killing Noordin Mohammad Top would bolster confidence in Indonesia's security but the capacity of militants to regenerate means radical Islam will remain a risk for Southeast Asia's biggest economy regardless.

Malaysian-born Top is a prime suspect in last month's near simultaneous suicide attacks on Jakarta's JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels which killed nine people and wounded 53.

Three suspects were killed, five arrested and half-a-tonne of explosives was seized in weekend raids, although early confidence that the elusive Top was among the dead appears to be fading.

Forensic tests including on DNA, finger prints and hair do not match the militant, a police source told Reuters on Monday.

Rohan Gunaratna, a terrorism expert based in Singapore, said it was important not to get fixated on Top.

"Certainly neutralizing Noordin Top is crucial for Indonesia's strategy to bring down the entire terrorist network," he said. "But neutralizing Noordin Top is not going to kill terrorism."

Indonesia lacks the political will to go after radical preachers, authors and publishers that provide fertile ground for militants in the world's most populous Muslim nation, he said.

"There's a huge capacity of terrorist regeneration in Indonesia because the ideological and supporting infrastructure of the terrorist network has not been dismantled," he said.

When a former partner of Top's, fellow Malaysian and expert bomb-maker Azahari Husin, was killed in a 2005 raid it led to a lull in operations for four years.

But the latest attacks and raids illustrated how militants had managed to regroup and may be better prepared, said Andi Widjajanto, a security expert at the University of Indonesia.

"I think they are ready for regeneration," said Widjajanto, adding he believed Top's network had a bomb expert known as Reno, alias Tedi, and a suicide bomber recruiter called Syaifudin Jaelani, or SJ, lined up as possible replacements for Top.

The two suicide bombers who carried out last month's hotel attacks were aged 18 and 28, and were unknown to police.

"MAKE WESTERN NATIONS TREMBLE"

Top would still be hard to replace, however, since the former accountant has the caliber to organize sophisticated attacks and is skilled at recruiting suicide bombers, experts say.

"He knows how to find safe houses, get people for surveillance, mix explosives. In short he has excellent management skills, because his background is management," said Noor Huda Ismail, a security consultant. He previously attended the Al-Mukmin boarding school, once described in an International Crisis Group report as part of an "Ivy League" to which members of the militant network Jemaah Islamiah (JI) sent their children.

Top, who formed a violent wing of JI, is blamed for a series of attacks in Indonesia, including on the Australian Embassy in Jakarta in 2004 and in Bali in 2005.

"If the authorities can confirm his death it will go a long way toward restoring confidence that was lost from the bombing on 17 July," said Kevin O'Rourke, a Jakarta-based political risk analyst and author.

While not a key issue for stock investors, the fact that a suicide bomber targeted a business meeting attended by foreigners at the Marriott was a "severe blow psychologically" for attracting long-term foreign direct investment, O'Rourke said.

"What Indonesia really needs, especially for infrastructure development, is foreign direct investment and in turn that requires decisions among senior expatriate investors in Jakarta and they were precisely the ones who were targeted."

Since the Australian embassy bombing, the stated aim of Top's group -- Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad, or Organization for the Base of Jihad -- has been "to make Western nations tremble."

PLOT TO KILL YUDHOYONO

Whether Top is dead or not, the police raids at the weekend appear to have uncovered a major militant network and disrupted plans for more attacks, including an audacious plan to assassinate President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Police said Top chaired an April 30 meeting where a plot was agreed to carry out a suicide attack on the president's home using a minibus packed with explosives in retaliation for the execution of the Bali bombers last year.

Some radical groups refer to Indonesian officials as "thoghut" (anti-Islamic force), but targeting the president could mark a switch from primarily going after Western interests.

Gunaratna, of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, said uncovering the plot to kill Yudhoyono should mean an intensified hunt for Top if he is alive.

"Because Indonesia has now realized that he presents threats not only to Western targets but also he presents a very significant threat to the Indonesian government."

Indonesia has been praised from many quarters for its success in tackling militant attacks, including its de-radicalization program, but analysts say it is a long-term project.

"We have 210 million people and 35 million are in absolute poverty, and this terrorist group, if they want to launch an attack, they need about five people, so it is very easy to find new recruits," said the University of Indonesia's Widjajanto.

(Additional reporting by Olivia Rondonuwu and Telly Nathalia; Editing by Bill Tarrant)