FACTBOX-Five key risks for Europe, Middle East, Africa

LONDON Aug 12 (Reuters) - Votes in Germany and Ireland, Latvia's struggle over budget cuts, Iran's politics, Russia's neighbourhood tensions and South Africa's internal strains could all spill over into markets in the coming months.

Here are five key short-term risks identified by Reuters correspondents across Europe, the Middle East and Africa:

GERMAN, IRISH VOTES

The Sept. 27 federal German election will be watched closely to see what form of coalition emerges in Europe's linchpin economy, either a centre-right coalition or a continued grand coalition that might see stalemate and more cautious government.

A centre-right coalition would be committed to cutting taxes and it might take more aggressive action to clean up banks by transferring toxic assets to the taxpayer. It might also let failing companies go to the wall rather than supporting them.

Ireland votes for a second time on the European Union's Lisbon treaty on Oct. 2, with polls pointing to a "yes" vote this time. The financial crisis may prompt many Irish to view the EU as a protector. A "no" vote would plunge the EU into a crisis of confidence and stymie future reform.

Investors will also be watching the risk of contagion from crisis in the Baltics spreading west, a potential leftwards shift for the European Commission and the potential for a new Russia-Ukraine gas row.

For more details on risks for the Eurozone, click on [ID:nL7421677]

BALTICS CRISIS

The most exposed countries in the EU to the financial crisis, the Baltic states are suffering some of Europe's worst recessions and are trying to force through brutal budget cuts. Latvia's ruling coalition is showing strains over austerity measures essential to maintaining support from the IMF.

If one of the Baltic currency pegs -- most likely Latvia -- was to break, that could prompt a wider market crisis across Eastern Europe that could also hurt the euro and Western European banks with local exposure.

Emerging Europe is struggling with a string of economic pressures, political worries, elections and an ageing population that will put further strain on countries in years to come.

For more details on risks in the eastern EU, click on [ID:nLA417541]

RUSSIAN TENSIONS

While the risk of renewed conflict in Georgia is seen falling towards the end of the year as the weather becomes worse for fighting, other potential pressures remain, particularly between Moscow and Ukraine. Strains over Ukraine's Russian-speaking Crimea region, the Black Sea fleet and gas supplies could be exacerbated by Ukraine's presidential election due on Jan. 17.

Foreign investors in Moscow are also watching Norwegian telecom Telenor's court battle to retain control of its stake in Russia's second largest mobile operator Vimpelcom as a litmus test for the rule of law in Russia.

Fluctuating oil prices will also be watched, while investors in Turkey will be more concerned over strains between the secular military and more Islamist-leaning government.

For more details on risks east of the EU's borders, click on [ID:nLC566478]

IRAN'S POLITICAL TURMOIL, NUCLEAR QUEST

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might be back in power after a June disputed election, but faces further challenges to his authority while infighting between political and clerical rulers may paralyse decision-making. That could complicate deciding how to respond to offers of engagement from the United States for a Western September deadline for Tehran to enter nuclear talks.

If that deadline fails, the United States will feel pressure to impose tougher sanctions or even brandish the threat of military action, something that could have knock-on regional affects and worry global markets.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, U.S. President Barack Obama's peacemaking attempts between Israelis and Palestinians, a debt crisis in Saudi Arabia and ebbing investor confidence in the Gulf will all be in focus.

For more details on risks for the Middle East, click on [ID:nL775585].

SOUTH AFRICA STRAINS

Strikes and a difficult wage negotiation season between unions and employers, including council workers and the electricity sector, sapped investor confidence in Africa's largest economy this month, even if several strikes now look to have been resolved.

But investors remain keen to see how President Jacob Zuma will reconcile his promises to his leftist allies and populist support base with his pledges to foreign investors as discontent in poor townships continues to simmer.

South African assets suffered last week, missing out on a wider emerging markets rally with analysts also worrying over a flagging economy.

Elsewhere in Africa, the threat of mounting budget deficits, a potential drought-bringing El Nino effect, instability in Nigeria's Niger Delta and Kenya's internal debate on bringing to justice those responsible for post-election violence could weigh on markets.

For more details on risks to watch in Africa, click on [ID:nLB12591]