Fitch Downgrades MSCI 2007-HQ13; Assigns Outlooks
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)-- Fitch Ratings has downgraded and removed from Rating Watch Negative 11 classes of commercial mortgage pass-through certificates from Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2007-HQ13. In addition, Fitch has assigned Rating Outlooks as applicable. A detailed list of rating actions follows at the end of this release. The downgrades are the result of loss expectations and reflect Fitch's prospective views regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow declines. Fitch forecasts potential losses of 6.15% for this transaction should market conditions not recover. Today's rating actions are based on losses of 5.20%, including 100% of the losses associated with term defaults and any losses associated with maturities within the next five years. Given the significant term to maturity, Fitch's actions only account for 25% of the losses associated with maturities beyond five years. The bonds with Negative Outlooks indicate classes that may be downgraded in the future should full potential losses be realized. Fitch analyzed the transaction and calculated expected losses by assuming cash flows on each of the properties decline 15% from year-end (YE) 2007 and property values decline 35% from issuance. These loss estimates were reviewed in more detail for certain loans representing 66.0% of the pool and, in some cases, revised based on additional information and/or property characteristics. The remaining 34% represent 9.14% of the total losses. Approximately 22.6% of the mortgages mature within the next five years as follows: 3.9% in 2009, 8.1% in 2010, 10.7% in 2012, 0.2% in 2013, and 0.1% in 2014. In 2017, 72.4% of the pool is scheduled to mature. Fitch identified 12 Loans of Concern (27.7%) within the pool, two of which (2.2%) are specially serviced. Of the specially serviced loans, one (1.3%) is current. None of the transactions top 15 loans are in special servicing. Three of the top 15 loans (8.4%) are expected to default during the term, with loss severities up to 46.8%. The largest contributors to loss are as follows: Tower 17 (3.7%), Sanctuary Lofts (2.2%), and the Seattle Portfolio (1.9%). The Tower 17 loan (3.7%) is collateralized by a 231,598 square foot (sf) Class A office building located in Irvine, CA. The property was 28.4% vacant at issuance and has been unable to increase occupancy due to market conditions in Orange County. As of the June 3, 2009 rent roll, the property is 76.2% occupied. The borrower has to lower rents and offer concessions, along with its competitors, in order to avoid losing tenants to cheaper space. According to PPR, the Airport submarket vacancy was 20.7% in second quarter 2009 (2Q'09) and rents of $27.2 psf. The loan is sponsored by Rockwood Capital. An affiliate of Rockwood recently purchased the B-notes on the property. The Sanctuary Lofts loan (2.2%) is collateralized by a 203 unit (534 beds) student housing property located in San Marcos, TX. The subject is located less than one mile from the Texas State University San Marcos Campus (approximately 20,000 student enrollment). The servicer reported YE08 debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was 0.84 times (x) with occupancy at 94.66%. A new property manager was hired at the end of 2008 and the borrower expects performance to improve in the upcoming 2009-2010 school year. The Seattle Portfolio loan (1.94%) consists of three cross-collateralized loans that mature Dec. 1, 2009. Queen Vista, the largest loan in the portfolio (1.04%) is collateralized by an 87 unit multifamily property in Seattle, WA. The servicer reported YE08 DSCR was 1.04x and an occupancy of 84.0%. The second largest loan, 733 Summit (0.5%), is collateralized by a 52 unit multifamily property in Seattle, WA. As of YE08 the property was 78% occupied with a DSCR of 1.21x. The third loan, Highland Crest (0.4%), is collateralized by a 34 unit multifamily property in Seattle, WA. As of YE08 the property was 94% occupied with a DSCR of 1.02x. The borrower has hired a new management company and made personnel reductions in an effort to reduce overhead costs and improve performance at the properties. The borrower has requested a loan extension; however, the properties do not meet the contemplated extension requirements. This loan is currently with the master servicer. Fitch downgrades, removes from Rating Watch Negative, and assigns Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings to the following classes: --$72.8 million class AJ to 'A/LS3' from 'AAA'; Outlook Negative; --$18.2 million class B to 'A/LS5' from 'AA'; Outlook Negative; --$11.7 million class C to 'BBB/LS5' from 'AA-'; Outlook Negative; --$16.9 million class D to 'BB/LS5' from 'A'; Outlook Negative; --$13.0 million class E to 'BB/LS5' from 'A-'; Outlook Negative; --$11.7 million class F to 'B/LS5' from 'BBB+'; Outlook Negative; --$11.7 million class G to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB'; Outlook Negative; --$13.0 million class H to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB-'; Outlook Negative; --$3.9 million class J to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB+; Outlook Negative; --$3.9 million class K to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB; Outlook Negative; --$3.9 million class L to 'B-/LS5' from 'BB-'; Outlook Negative. In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following classes, with a Stable Outlook: --$140.5 million class A-1 at 'AAA/LS1'; --$178.2 million class A-1A at 'AAA/LS1'; --$67.7 million class A-2 at 'AAA/LS1'; --$334.5 million class A-3 at 'AAA/LS1'; --Interest-only class X at 'AAA'; --$103.9 million class A-M at 'AAA/LS1'. Fitch does not rate the $10.4 million class M, $2.6 million class N, $2.9 million class O, and $10.4 million class P certificates. Additional information on Fitch's amended criteria for analyzing recent vintage U.S. CMBS is available in the July 8, 2009 report, 'Surveillance Methodology for Recent Vintage U.S. CMBS', on Fitch's web site at www.fitchratings.com under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Criteria Reports Fitch will release a report titled 'MSCI 2007-HQ13' that will contain a graph of revised loss expectations for the transaction at www.fitchratings.com under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Special Reports Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site. Fitch Ratings Jonathan Teichmann, +1-212-908-8628 Adam Fox, +1-212-908-0869 (New York) Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278 (New York) sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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