FACTBOX: Five world market themes next week
LONDON |
LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five themes likely to dominate the thinking of investors and traders in the coming week.
1/ CENTRAL BANKERS IN A HOLE
The annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, of many of the world's leading central bankers this weekend will offer insight into policymakers' thinking on the health of the global economy and financial system.
The global economy and financial system appear on the road to recovery but that is in large part due to unprecedented official stimulus that will have to be withdrawn at some point - the questions investors want answered are when, and how.
More clarity could emerge from the symposium, but central bankers no longer appear to be quite as shoulder to shoulder with one another on coordinated policy as they were last year in the aftermath of Lehman's collapse.
2/ CHINA STOCK WATCHING
It is August, liquidity has dried up with the summer holiday season in full swing, and investors are palpably more cautious about the economic outlook now than they have been for months. It is against this backdrop that that the Chinese stock market is emerging as the focal point and driver of all other asset markets.
The Shanghai Composite technically slipped into bear market territory earlier this week, shedding 20 percent in the two weeks from August 4 to August 19 on profit taking from the 90 pct surge this year and growing fears that Chinese authorities might tighten credit and lending, thereby putting the brakes on the economy many hope will be the engine global growth.
There is no major Chinese economic data scheduled for release next week, leaving thin markets at the whim of sentiment in what is a notoriously volatile stock market.
3/ GROWTH FOUNDATIONS
The United States, Britain and Germany unveil revised estimates of Q2 economic growth. Revised GDP figures rarely garner much attention but with initial estimates from Germany, France and Japan earlier this month all showing that these countries exited recession in the last quarter, investors will be looking for further evidence the world economy has turned the corner.
The hard data is stronger now than it has been for some time but is the global economy building a solid base for recovery, or is it more likely to buckle were authorities to begin withdrawing the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus? Reuters polls of over 250 economists this week showed that the recovery will be fragile, something echoed by leading UK, euro zone and Japanese central bankers this week.
4/ ABNORMALLY NORMAL MONEY MARKETS
A veil of normality continues to cloak interbank money markets, with Libor at record lows and some closely-watched measures of money market health like Libor/OIS spreads and the TED spread almost back to levels seen before August, 2007. But that is only thanks to authorities' liquidity injections, guarantees and asset purchases worth trillions.
Banks have hoovered up this free or ultra-cheap money but still are not feeding it into the real economy, with lending to business and households still patchy at best. Euro zone M3 money supply figures for July are expected to show another slowdown in the rate of growth, to 3.3 percent on the year from 3.5 percent in June.
- Tweet this
- Link this
- Share this
- Digg this
- Reprints


Follow Reuters