SCENARIOS: The hands the GM board could deal in Opel poker

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - U.S. carmaker General Motors' board of directors is set to decide on Friday which suitor for the Opel business in Europe it will support.

Rival bids from Canadian automotive group Magna and Belgium-based financial investor RHJ are on the table in Detroit, though Opel trustees who oversee a majority stake in Opel have to approve any decision.

Billions of euros in aid from European countries with Opel plants are riding on the decision.

Here are some of the possible outcomes:

GM BOARD BACKS MAGNA OFFER

The German government, top politicians in four German states with Opel plants and Opel's 25,000 staff in Germany are pulling for this decision, hoping Magna's expertise in the car business will serve Opel better and save more jobs.

Should GM back a sale to Magna, the federal and state governments in Germany are likely to approve 4.5 billion euros ($6.4 billion) in state aid to keep Opel afloat, then seek contributions from other countries with Opel plants.

It remains to be seen whether Opel staff in other European countries such as Britain, Spain and Belgium will be as keen to embrace Magna, given its cost-cutting plans.

The British government has also said the decision "should not be distorted by political considerations in any one country."

GM BOARD RECOMMENDS RHJ

GM's top negotiator for the Opel deal, John Smith, has repeatedly cited the positive aspects of RHJ's offer, which he says would be easier to implement than Magna's plan.

But picking RHJ would meet stiff headwinds in Germany, where officials have signaled RHJ is less likely than Magna to get state aid for the deal. Germany has already provided 1.5 billion euros in bridge financing for Opel.

If GM picks RHJ, negotiations with Berlin could drag on.

GM SEEKS MORE NEGOTIATIONS

Magna has said it has cleared up all the remaining issues for an Opel purchase in talks with GM management, but GM officials have spoken only of a new offer from Magna that needed to be reviewed.

GM SEEKS TO BUY BACK OPEL Grabbing back Opel after GM emerged from bankruptcy would spare the U.S. carmaker much wrangling with European politicians over what happens with Opel and help it compete for the title of world's biggest automaker.

But GM would have to raise at least 1.5 billion euros to refinance the German bridge loan and it has dismissed reports it could ask the U.S. government for more aid to buy back Opel. Such a step would also mean GM could not count on European state aid for the billions needed to reorganize Opel.

For a factbox on the rival offers click

For a factbox on Opel sites and staff click

($1=.7028 Euro)

(Reporting by Angelika Gruber, editing by Will Waterman)