SCENARIOS: Opening the CIA interrogation box

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has decided to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate abuses by CIA interrogators and contractors in using methods that went beyond approved limits.

This is how the decision to open an investigation, to be led by federal prosecutor John Durham, could play out:

DISTRACTION

The naming of a special prosecutor for CIA cases could temporarily compete with healthcare in the headlines and distract some attention from President Barack Obama's domestic agenda.

The president wants to push for healthcare overhaul, not get bogged down with questions about interrogation methods introduced by his predecessor, George W. Bush, following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

Obama's opponents would probably use the issue as a chance to attack him again for being soft on national security.

But any criminal investigation would be unlikely to wrap up quickly, so after an initial flurry, the public focus would likely subside.

DISAPPOINTMENT

An investigation by a special prosecutor is likely to anger many political groups in Washington.

Those on the left will be angry because the probe will be narrowly focused. No one expects the investigation to reach the highest levels of the previous White House such as the former president or vice president, as many liberals desire.

Groups on the right will be angry because the investigation will be seen as criticism of Bush over what they regard as actions taken for national security at a time of war. They also worry that the probe will be seen by potential terrorists as a sign of U.S. weakness.

DISENCHANTMENT

The CIA has taken a political beating for years over its lapses prior to the September 11 attacks and is likely to see the investigation as another sign that following orders from political powers will always land the agency in hot water when the political winds shift.

There will be some disenchantment with Obama, because he assured them during a visit to CIA headquarters that his interest was in moving forward and not looking back.

The CIA also worries that foreign intelligence services will think twice about sharing secrets with the United States.

(Reporting by Tabassum Zakaria; Editing by Andrew Quinn and Cynthia Osterman)