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Q+A: What does partial Afghan poll count mean?

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KABUL | Tue Aug 25, 2009 12:42pm EDT

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai held a slender lead over challenger Abdullah Abdullah on Tuesday with around 10 percent of the votes from last week's election officially tallied, the country's election commission said.

The partial result had Karzai with 41 percent of votes compared with Abdullah's 39 percent, based on ballot boxes received so far from Afghanistan's 34 provinces.

No ballot boxes have been received from eight provinces, meaning the partial count is by no means a balanced reflection of the overall poll.

Here are some questions and answers about what the results mean for the main contenders.

* WHAT DOES THE PARTIAL COUNT MEAN FOR KARZAI?

Of the 524,444 valid votes counted and released by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), Karzai had 212,927 votes and his main rival, former foreign minister Abdullah had 202,889.

The figures released do not include many provinces in the south and east, the Pasthun heartland from where Karzai draws much of his support.

From Kandahar, for instance, Karzai's home province, the IEC has so far counted just under 2 percent of votes cast. In neighboring Helmand province, where thousands of U.S. and British soldiers have been fighting Taliban insurgents, no votes have been counted at all.

Other provinces such as Logar and Ghazni, which border Kabul and are likely to vote in Karzai's favor, were also poorly represented in the partial count amid rising violence.

Votes from such places could boost Karzai's chances as the counting goes on. Preliminary final results are due on September 3.

So far about 50 percent of votes have been counted from the province of Jowzjan, one of the few northern provinces where Karzai is expected to lead, because of support from ethnic Uzbeks.

* WHAT DOES THE PARTIAL COUNT MEAN FOR ABDULLAH?

Some of Afghanistan's most stable provinces in the north have also yet to be counted. The north is mainly Tajik, Afghanistan's second-largest ethnic group, from where Abdullah Abdullah draws his strongest support.

This includes Balkh province, a relatively secure area where female participation was seen to be relatively high compared with the south.

About 50 percent of votes have been counted in the Panjshir valley, Abdullah's heartland northeast of Kabul. This represents one of the biggest percentages of all provinces.

Compared with Karzai, there are fewer provinces left to count where Abdullah is likely to lead.

But, because insecurity is more rife in provinces in the south and southeast where Karzai is likely to lead, the incumbent should still be prepared for a second round.

(Reporting by Golnar Motevalli; Editing by Paul Tait and Jon Hemming)

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