Research and Markets: Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?r=1071163) has announced the
addition of the "Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q3 2009" report to their offering.

Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists,
corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and
regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on
Kuwait's oil and gas industry.

The latest Kuwait Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for
2.62% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.74% of
supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an
estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then
rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in
2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to
28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is
lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an
average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.18mn b/d in 2008
and is forecast to reach 16.58mn b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production
growth potential, followed by Qatar.

As regards natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 386bn cubic
metres (bcm), with demand of 511bcm targeted for 2013, representing 32.3%
growth. Production of an estimated 407bcm in 2008 should reach 625bcm in 2013
(+53.8%), which implies net exports rising to 115bcm by the end of the period.
Kuwait in 2008 consumed an estimated 3.63% of the region's gas, with its market
share forecast at 4.95% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 3.47% to 2008
regional gas production and, by 2013, will account for 3.30% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q109 was an
estimated US$45.78 per barrel (bbl), down 13% from the US$52.51 recorded during
the previous three months. During the second quarter, there has been little
change to our view of oil market developments. The report is forecasting an
average OPEC basket price of US$51.30/bbl, with the March gains being retained
in April, before further recovery to a possible US$57.00 is seen by June. For
2009, we are still assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52.00/bbl (-45%
year-on-year (y-o-y)). The full-year forecast implies Brent Crude at US$53.73,
WTI averaging US$54.90/bbl and Urals at US$52.66 for 2009.

For the whole of 2009, the assumption for gasoline is an average US$56.89/bbl,
with the price peaking at a forecast monthly average of US$64.75 in December
2009. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 44.1%. For gasoil
in 2009, the forecast is for an average price of US$69.35/bbl, assuming a
monthly high of US$94.48/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a
42.8% fall from the 2008 level. The monthly average jet fuel price is forecast
to range from US$53.75 in February to US$96.76/bbl in December, proving an
annual level of US$71.78/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. Kuwaiti
real GDP is now forecast to fall by 1.0% in 2009, following growth of 5.9% in
2008. We are assuming 0.4% growth in 2010, 2.4% in 2011, followed by 3.6% in
2012 and 3.7% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 282,000b/d
in 2008 to 309,000b/d in 2013, lagging the underlying rate of economic
expansion. State oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) is responsible
for all domestic oil and gas operations. In spite of the absence of near-term
international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to
increase from an estimated 2.75mn b/d in 2008 to 3.05mn b/d in 2013, subject to
OPEC quotas. Gas production should reach 20.6bcm by 2013, up from an estimated
14.0bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 14.0bcm to 25.3bcm by the
end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 4.7bcm.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti oil production
of 34.6%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.70mn b/d by the end of the
10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to
increase by 29.2%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the
end of the period and the country using 364,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is
expected to climb to almost 28bcm by the end of the period. With 2008-2018
demand growth of 178%, this provides an import requirement rising to more than
11bcm by 2018. Details of the new 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix
to this report.

Kuwait now occupies ninth place in the updated Upstream Business Environment
rating, which is a surprising outcome given its vast oil and gas wealth. It is
just one place ahead of Saudi Arabia, but should be safe from any immediate
challenge thanks to a comfortable margin. The country's score suffers from
strict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy
resource position. The country is in the lower half of the league table in the
Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores and near-term
progress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked ninth ahead only of Iraq,
thanks largely to excellent country risk factors that outweigh a highly
regulated and largely state controlled industry. Iran and Bahrain are
immediately above it in the regional rankings, but are unlikely to pull further
away during the next few quarters.

Key Topics Covered:

* Executive Summary
* SWOT Analysis
* Kuwait Energy Market Overview
* Regional Energy Market Overview
* Business Environment Ranking
* Business Environment
* Industry Forecast Scenario
* Macroeconomic Outlook
* Competitive Landscape
* Company Monitor
* Glossary of Terms
* Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
* Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
* Forecast Modelling

Companies Mentioned:

* Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
* Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?r=1071163.

Research and Markets
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
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