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INSTANT VIEW: Jobless claims slip, GDP unchanged at -1 pct
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week to 570,000, and those collecting long-term unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level since April, government data showed on Thursday.
KEY POINTS: * Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast new claims slipping to 565,000 in the week ending August 22 from 580,000 the prior week, which had been previously reported as 576,000. * Continued claims fell to 6.133 million in the week ended August 15 from 6.252 million the prior week. That was the lowest since the week ending April 4, when they were 6.045 million.
GDP REVISION:
The U.S. economy contracted more slowly than expected in the second quarter as smaller declines in consumer spending and exports offset a record inventory liquidation, government data showed on Thursday, while corporate profits rose.
KEY POINTS: * The Commerce Department said gross domestic product, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, fell at a 1 percent annual rate, unchanged from last month's estimate. * Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast output shrinking at a 1.5 percent pace in the second quarter after collapsing 6.4 percent in the January-March quarter.
COMMENTS:
MARK VITNER, ECONOMIST, WELLS FARGO ADVISORS, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA:
"It was a little bit of a surprise that (GDP) did not drop more. We had a smaller drop in consumer spending, and yet a larger drop in inventories, so production must have been cut back more in the second quarter than previously thought. It sets us up for a little bit bigger rebound in third quarter.
"The jobless figures are still really high. People get all excited about the turn in the economy but when you look at where jobless claims are right now, while they dropped they are still higher than where we thought we would be."
MAX BUBLITZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SCM ADVISORS, SAN FRANCISCO:
"Looks like there were upward revisions to exports, consumer and government spending but it looks like it offset, like everyone expected, by revisions to inventory. Net-net headline was a little bit of a surprise, but all in all I don't think it's going to be a big market mover.
"We all know the story about the inventory correction, about how it's going to pick back up in the third quarter. I guess the surprise was consumer spending revised up slightly. To me the story I have been focusing on has been with most of the normal monetary and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms not working very well the only real means to stimulate the economy is through higher asset prices, which is what we see. The real trick obviously is when you have to turn that off and allow the other transmission mechanisms to work and Bernanke is in a place to do that. But that's a little bit further down the road."
INITIAL CLAIMS:
"Fairly close to expectations, slight downward revision. Same old story, that is pretty well built into the market. We're going to see the unemployment rate continue to climb through the next couple of quarters, I don't think there is any shocker there. I do see continuing claims down and that tends historically to have a better correlation with the actual unemployment rate. These days it's all kind of cloudy because you get these extensions, long durations and all that.
"Net-net, I don't think there is a real shocker here and given that, at least in the bond market, trading has been mind-numbingly dead for the last couple of days. I'm not sure we have a whole lot going for us today."
SUBODH KUMAR, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SUBODH KUMAR & ASSOCIATES, TORONTO:
"The data shows that the economy isn't getting any worse, but that's already built into the market. The claims are still high, so I think we'll find that what we've seen in the last few days, the correction, will continue.
"The GDP number is better when compared to the first quarter, but that's also built into the market."
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures slipped slightly. BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices reduced losses. DOLLAR: U.S. dollar trimmed losses against the yen.
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