Poland sees lower shortfall of CO2 permits

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland's shortfall of pollution permits under the European Union's climate plan may reach a lower-than-expected 50 million tons between 2008 and 2012, Deputy Environment Minister Bernard Blaszczyk said on Thursday.

The figure is lower than previous estimates because the economic crisis has crimped industry emissions and energy demand in the coal-reliant country and biggest ex-communist EU member.

"The deficit should not top 50 million tons for the whole economy, but given the technology innovations and the crisis in particular, it could also be somehow lower than that. It should not amount to hundreds of millions of tons," Blaszczyk said at the Reuters Global Climate and Alternative Energy Summit.

Warsaw originally opposed the bloc's climate package aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to curb global warming, arguing less pollution rights would hurt its expanding economy. Poland eventually agreed to the plan after getting concessions.

Until the end of 2012 many installations under the scheme receive some carbon dioxide (CO2) permits for free, but in the next phase of the plan the vast majority of them will be sold on market tenders.

"The decision on the organization of the tenders has still to be made, but we would want to have them organized in all member states rather than have a single center in Brussels for example," Blaszczyk also said.

"We think the tender should be a way of distributing permits and give equal chances to giants like RWE (RWEG.DE) and smaller units. Maybe the tenders should be split and run separately for bigger and smaller ones, or in division for economic sectors."

POST-KYOTO

Blaszczyk also played down expectations that the December talks in Copenhagen, aimed at reaching a new global climate deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, would bring a final agreement for all of the nearly 200 U.N. member states.

As the U.N. summit nears, some analysts and officials are increasingly skeptical about chances of clinching a deal this year but Blaszcyk said even without an agreement the meeting can be a success. "Even if there is no legally-binding text in Copenhagen, there is still a chance for progress and a clear declaration of the next steps needed and on the items the future agreement would encompass. So Copenhagen would achieve its goal," he said.

"A bad agreement would be worse that a lack of agreement at this point. We can't expect too much from Copenhagen."

(Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)