FACTBOX: China think-tank energy, CO2 scenarios

(Reuters) - China's attempt to switch to a "low-carbon" form of economic growth will still see its total energy usage almost double by 2050, according to an major new study from a prominent Beijing energy think-tank.

"China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050," issued by the Energy Research Institute, which is under the National Development and Reform Commission, examines China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions under four different development scenarios.

These scenarios are not forecasts, but models of what alternative policies and steps may be produce in energy-use and emissions.

(1) BASELINE SCENARIO

China proceeds with "business as usual," using the same routes to industrialization made by developed countries.

China will make technological advances to improve energy efficiency, and by 2050 consume about 7.8 billion tonnes of coal equivalent, up from 2.2 billion tonnes in 2005.

(2) ENERGY-SAVING "BUSINESS AS USUAL" SCENARIO

The ordinary model of economic development "undergoes certain changes" but no major technological breakthroughs are made in emission reduction technologies and "saving energy as a way of life" has not become popular. Annual energy consumption will stand at 6.7 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel alone will rise to equal 3.2 billion tonnes a year of carbon in 2035, and 3.3 billion tonnes in 2050, compared to 1.7 billion tonnes in 2007.

(3) LOW-CARBON SCENARIO

China "takes the initiative" to change its model of economic development, "changing the patterns of production and consumption," applying large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and aggressively pushing forward nuclear and renewable energy. Total energy consumption will reach 5.6 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.

Total CO2 emissions from fossil fuel are then likely to reach the equivalent of 2.4 billion tonnes of pure carbon a year in 2035, and about the same in 2050.

(4) ENHANCED LOW-CARBON SCENARIO

China works with developed countries to make major breakthroughs in emission reduction technologies, significantly reducing costs. Total energy consumption will reach 5.0 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2050.

Total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel can then be held to 2.2 billion tonnes of pure carbon a year in 2035, and 1.4 billion tonnes in 2050.

Based on these scenarios, the Energy Research Institute gives the following estimates of energy consumption in the year 2050:

Unit 2008 2050 (2) 2050 (3) 2050 (4) Total energy bln T* 2.9 6.69 5.562 5.022 Per capita energy T* 2.1 4.6 3.81 3.4 Coal bln T 2.72 3.85 2.81 2.01 Petroleum bln T 0.368 1.25 0.77 0.7 Natural Gas bln cu m 77.8 501.3 496.8 477.0 Nuclear GW 9.1 300 350 420 Hydro GW 171.5 400 450 470 Wind GW 8.9 350 380 450 Solar GW >0.1 310 410 460

Notes:

(2) - Energy-saving scenario,

(3) - Low-carbon scenario,

(4) - Enhanced low-carbon scenario

* coal equivalent

Under each scenario, China's rate of economic growth would remain more or less the same, the report said, with per capita GDP projected to reach $22,000 (at year 2000 valuations) by 2050, compared to $1,445 in 2005. The rate of urbanisation will reach 79 percent, up from 43 percent in 2005.

The following table shows some of the 2050 indicators predicted by the report, compared to 2005 in China and the United States.

China 2005 USA 2005 China 2050 (2) China 2050 (3) Per capita GDP $1,445 $39,000 $22,000 $22,000 Steel output (mln T) 500 140 700 600 Car ownership* 24 808 420 388 Per capita energy (T) 1.72 11.3 4.58 3.81 Per capita CO2 emissions (T) 3.88 19.61 8.33 5.98 Notes:

(2) Energy-saving scenario

(3) Low-carbon scenario

* per 1,000 people

(Source: China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050, Energy Research Institute)

(Reporting by David Stanway, Editing by Gerard Wynn)