Polish, Czech governments undamaged by U.S. shield decision

WARSAW/PRAGUE (Reuters) - Polish and Czech right-wingers accused Washington of caving in to Russia after it dropped plans for a missile shield on their soil, but the move is not expected to harm the governments in Warsaw and Prague.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski, a conservative supporter of the shield, said his government shared blame for the demise of the U.S. project, but analysts say the economy is a far bigger priority than missile defense for Polish and Czech voters.

U.S. President Barack said on Thursday he was scrapping Bush-era plans to build missile interceptors in Poland and a radar site in the Czech Republic and instead proposed flexible, initially sea-based defense systems to protect against Iran.

Russia had fiercely opposed plans to deploy the shield in a region it had dominated until the fall of communism in 1989.

"Betrayal! The USA has sold us to the Russians and stabbed us in the back," said the Polish tabloid Fakt.

Czech daily Lidowe Noviny took a similar line. "Obama gave in to the Kremlin," it said.

Washington and its NATO allies in Prague and Warsaw always insisted the shield was aimed against Iran, not Russia, noting that 10 interceptors could not deter Moscow's nuclear arsenal.

In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's center-right, pro-EU government never embraced missile defense as keenly as its more conservative, Russophobic predecessor led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the president's twin brother, which it ousted in 2007.

This fact makes it difficult for the Kaczynskis to reap any electoral benefits from Obama's decision, though the president criticized the government in an article published in Fakt.

"Polish diplomacy and administration must bear part of the blame for the present situation. In the process of negotiation with the American side ... what was lacking was a feeling that the Polish government believes in the strategic character of the American presence in Poland," Kaczynski wrote.

PATRIOTS

Tusk is widely expected to challenge Kaczynski for the presidency in an election next year. Poland is also due to elect a new parliament in 2011. Tusk and his ruling Civic Platform should win both elections, according to current opinion polls.

"The Kaczynskis try to present themselves as the real patriots who are pro-U.S. and anti-Russian ... but few in Poland believed the missile defense shield would make us safer," said Pawel Spiewak, a sociologist at Warsaw University.

"As in Britain and the United States, foreign policy issues rarely have much impact on domestic public opinion, so I don't expect much impact from Obama's decision on politics here."

Polish officials have also stressed that a separate accord with Washington on defense cooperation still stands.

Under that deal, the United States will help Poland to upgrade its air defences by stationing a Patriot battery on its soil temporarily over several years. Technical talks are continuing on how to implement the Patriot agreement.

Unlike Poland, where Tusk has a big parliamentary majority, Czech politics is currently in a state of turmoil after a court ruling scuppered plans to hold an early election this autumn.

But there too, political analysts saw little impact from the U.S. decision on Jan Fischer's caretaker government. As in Poland, the Czechs' overriding priority right now is to bring a burgeoning budget deficit under control.

"There have been many polls showing most people are against missile defense but people would rank the topic very low on the list of issues they are interested in," said Petr Just, political science lecturer at Charles University in Prague.

"The opponents of the radar will be thumping their chests... but (the decision) will have no impact."

PERCEPTIONS

Still, Obama's decision may harm perceptions of U.S. reliability in ex-communist "New Europe," which has steadfastly supported Washington in Iraq and Afghanistan. Poland has lost 10 soldiers in Afghanistan, out of a 2,000-strong contingent, and the Czechs have lost two of their 450 troops based there.

"(The east Europeans) will certainly be even more careful next time (the United States wants their support) and Washington may forget about the two countries joining any future "coalition of the willing" with any U.S. administration," the Warsaw-based DemosEuropa think-tank wrote in a commentary.

Poles are particularly irked that Obama chose to make his shield announcement on September 17, when they were marking the 70th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of eastern Poland after Moscow clinched a non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany.

The day stands as a symbol for Poles of how big powers are prone to trample all over them when it suits them.

"It seems there are no Poland experts in the United States," said Radoslaw Markowski of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

(Writing by Gareth Jones)