FACTBOX-Europe's forthcoming elections -- what to watch

LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Europe faces a slew of national elections in the coming weeks with the focus on what form of coalitions will emerge and whether they will make it easier or harder to make crucial adjustments in the face of the economic crisis.

Germany, Portugal and Greece are all due to hold national elections in late September or early October, while Ireland's Green Party has warned there is a 40 percent chance they might quit the ruling coalition in the coming six months, sparking snap polls [ID:nL5575203].

The Czech Republic was due to hold elections on Oct. 9-10 and still potentially could, but the Constitutional Court effectively suspended the vote earlier this month and leftist parties moved to blockade vote until 2010 [ID:nLF374826]. Norway held elections on Sept 15, with Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg winning a small but unassailable majority for the centre-left [ID:nLF245887]. For all stories on the Norwegian election, click here [ID:nLA110568].

Below are the key points to watch for each upcoming election.

GERMANY -- GRAND OR NARROW COALITION?

The German Sept. 27 election has been most prominent on the radar of international financial markets, keen to see what will happen in Europe's linchpin economy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is seen likely to stay in power, with the key question being whether she will do well enough to be able to ditch her current grand coalition to move to a tighter, centre-right coalition between her conservative bloc and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).

A poll on Sept 17 showed the support for the conservative grouping -- the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) still short of the support needed to form a centre-right coalition, meaning she might need to again join with the rival Social Democrats (SPD) [ID:nBAT003152].

Policy differences between the two most likely coalitions are relatively slight, although a centre-right alliance is seen likely to cut public spending more as well as some taxes [ID:nLP358677].

Expectations of Germany's first grand coalition since the 1960s were low when it was formed in 2005, but it has been more successful than most expected, praised for its handling of the financial crisis and moves to balance the federal budget.

In principle, a narrower coalition should make policy-making easy and swifter for Merkel but she would lose one advantage of the grand coalition, its dominating majority in Germany's lower house of parliament which allowed it to push through legislation with little or no opposition.

For the latest stories on the German election, click here [ID:nL052558]

GREECE -- EUROZONE'S SOFT UNDERBELLY?

In some ways, the riskiest election for the eurozone could be Greece's snap election called for Oct. 4, which opinion polls suggest no party will win outright although the left-wing opposition PASOK party remains ahead.

Greece is seen as one of the eurozone's weakest links, with its second-highest debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, seen as 103.4 percent in 2009.

Investors and ratings agencies would like to see sharp budget cuts and other reforms to avert crisis -- but this will prove difficult if no clear winner emerges.

Most analysts would expect the European Union to provide financial support for Greece, stemming any default risk.

But the cost of supporting the eurozone's most vulnerable economies -- Greece and Ireland -- is seen as a potential risk for the euro EUR= and the sovereign debt of the zone's largest economies, particularly Germany, which would end up effectively footing the bill.

The risk of either country facing a serious crisis is seen as having fallen since the height of the global market slump last year and earlier this year, but both are still seen having to make sharp budget cuts and other adjustments to protect control ballooning deficits.

In Greece, both main parties have committed themselves to reforms but in reality may struggle, facing public opposition, potentially social unrest and trade union action.

A weak coalition government would make that process even more difficult.

For the latest stories on the Greek election, click here [ID:nL4523634]

PORTUGAL -- WEAKER GOVERNMENT AHEAD?

Opinion polls put Portugal's ruling Socialists ahead of opposition Social Democrats in a Sept. 27 general election but without enough of a lead to win an overall majority, potentially ushering in a period of political turbulence and unpredictability.[ID:nLC422544]

Prime Minister Jose Socrates' campaign hopes to draw more supporters from the far left, saying the election will help determine the future of the welfare system at a time of rising budget deficits.

The main opposition Social Democrats have pledged to slash the state role in the economy and halt big infrastructure projects to bring public debt under control.

For stories on the Portuguese election, click here [ID:nL996077]

IRELAND -- CAN COALITION SURVIVE?

Hit by the financial crisis worse than any other eurozone economy, Ireland would likely hold snap elections if Prime Minister Brian Cowen's highly unpopular government lost the support of its junior coalition partner the Greens.

Analysts say the government could collapse if Irish voters reject the EU Lisbon Treaty in an Oct. 2 referendum, or if it fails to push through unpopular banking reform legislation in a vote to take place shortly after. A budget vote in December could also prove a crunch point.

Like Greece, Ireland is seen needing to make stark austerity measures to avoid further crises that could spill over into the rest of the eurozone, reforms that could be imperilled by internal politics.

Polls still predict a likely "yes" vote for Lisbon but have shown a shift towards "no", with the government's unpopularity seen boosting the chance of a treaty rejection. [ID:nLQ160989]

The government is trying to bring together bad banking debts under a state-run National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), and the greens are under pressure from their own membership to water down the legislation and proposed austerity measures.

A compromise with the Greens on the bank bill on September 10 boosted the Dublin stockmarket [ID:nLA54877]. For stories on the "bad bank" in detail, click here [ID:nLG252087 ]

Polls suggest both Cowen's Fianna Fail and the Greens face a wipeout if elections are held.

CZECH REPUBLIC -- VOTE DELAY THREATENS REFORMS?

The Czech Republic had been due to hold elections on Oct. 9-10, but the Constitutional Court effectively suspended the last week pending a ruling on a complaint against the vote from an independent deputy.

But the leftist Social Democrats and far-left Communists on September 15 rejected a previous deal and said they were unwilling to agree to elections before 2010 [ID:nLF374826].

The country has been run by a non-partisan interim government since a centre-right coalition collapsed in March, but essential decisions -- including over the budget deficit -- have been intended to be left until after the election. [ID:nL2648762]

the Pregular term in June 2010 ready to stay on until the end of the regular term in June 2010, but only if local part gapcommitted to tax hikes and spending cuts to slash the budget gap [ID:nPRG003624]

A poll late last month showed the leftist Czech Social Democrats (CSSD) extending their lead over the main right-wing Civic Democrats (ODS), but with no party expected to win an overall majority.

(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)