SCENARIOS: N.Korea at brink of new disarmament talks

SEOUL (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama said North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was firmly back in control of his country and the erratic communist state may be set to return to negotiations on ending its nuclear arms programme.

World leaders gather in New York this week for a U.N. summit and later in Pittsburgh where dialogue partners at the disarmament talks will try to coordinate a new approach to coax Pyongyang back to the table, 10 months after talks broke down.

Here are some events that could unfold after Kim pledged last week to return to dialogue in a bilateral or multilateral format.

U.S., NORTH KOREA TO SIT DOWN, PYONGYANG CONTENT

U.S. officials are expected to sit down with North Koreans after the U.N. General Assembly that begins on Monday to discuss the nuclear issue. No formal concessions are being given to the North by the United States by agreeing to meet, but it is a key diplomatic coup for Pyongyang both at home and abroad. The meeting will likely pave the way for the North's return to talks.

NEGOTIATIONS RESUME, TENSIONS TAPER OFF

North Korea has declared the six-party talks over for good because it said the United States has schemed to turn negotiating partners against it and by doing so infringed on its sovereignty. But some analysts said the North had left the room open for a return to the existing six-way framework.

If and when the talks resume, South Korea, the United States, China, and, if they are invited back to the table, Japan and Russia will try to strike a "package deal" that will compensate the North for a quick and accelerated dismantlement of its nuclear programme, a South Korean official said. That will be a departure from two previous and defunct deals which laid down the process in several stages.

NORTH KOREA STICKS TO NUCLEAR ARMS, WORLD LEADERS MOVE ON

Few analysts believe the North will ever scrap its nuclear arms programme and pledge peaceful coexistence with the rest of the world. The likelihood is slim as long as Kim Jong-il is in power and if the North succeeds in third-generation dynastic succession where one of his sons take over. Regional powers have failed to bind the North to a disarmament deal in the past 20 years and Pyongyang has not only kept its nuclear arsenal but successively raised the stakes every time there was a change of government in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo. As long as there is continuation of the North's leaders and not in other countries, the North will never be bound to a disarmament deal, experts say.

SANCTIONS REMAINS, NORTH SQUEEZED

North Korea's return to negotiations does not mean world powers will let up on U.N. sanctions imposed after Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests this year. Officials in Seoul and Washington have said they will not repeat the mistake of adopting tough U.N. sanctions, only to shelve them in efforts to coax the North back to negotiations.

PROPAGANDA CYCLE COMPLETE, NEW ONE KICKS OFF

The North has carefully orchestrated a return to ascendancy for leader Kim Jong-il after questions were raised about his absolute control over the communist state when he was thought to have suffered a stroke a year ago.

The cycle began when a frail Kim returned to the national spotlight at the annual meeting of the state's parliament in April, when he had his term as leader extended.

Shortly after that, the North launched a massive national 150-day Speed Battle campaign that was aimed at celebrating Kim's leadership through shows of military might that included a nuclear test in May and mobilizing all the state to increase industrial and farm output.

It was supposed to end on the October 10 anniversary of the founding of the communist state's ruling Workers' Party. But the North's state media said on Monday the campaign had been extended by 100 days, in a move analysts