Q+A-What happens next in Gabon?
LIBREVILLE, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Gabon's president-elect Ali Ben Bongo is awaiting the result of a legal challenge to his disputed victory in Aug. 30 elections before he can be sworn in.
Calm has returned to the capital Libreville and oil hub Port Gentil after violence which broke out following the announcement of Bongo's victory was swiftly put down. Opposition calls for "progressive action" have not brought further protests.
Here are some pointers as to what could happen in the coming weeks in the oil-producing nation:
WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE UNREST?
An opposition call last week for workers to stay at home in protest at Ben Bongo's victory went largely unheeded, and there seems little appetite for more of the rioting that immediately followed the broadcast of the result.
At that time, a widespread belief that former colonial power France helped Ben Bongo rig the poll led to attacks on French targets, including its consulate and a social club owned by oil firm Total (TOTF.PA), one of the biggest investors in Gabon.
Total reacted to the violence by moving its expatriate staff and families to Libreville from Port Gentil, but the firm said on Tuesday that its operations had not been disrupted, and that it remained committed to investing in Gabon.
Unless the situation changes dramatically, predictions by analysts and investors of a brief flare-up followed by a return to stability and business as usual will have proved correct.
WHAT IS THE STRATEGY OF THE OPPOSITION?
A coalition of losing candidates last week presented Gabon's top court with an official challenge to the election result.
The group, which includes opposition figurehead Pierre Mamboundou and Andre Mba Obame, a former interior minister, both of whom polled around 25 percent to Ben Bongo's 41.7 percent, said it had evidence of fraud in most of the results.
The constitutional court, which many say is controlled by Ben Bongo supporters, has a month to consider the complaint. However, given that it has already endorsed Ben Bongo's victory, it is highly unlikely to reverse its position.
Some opposition supporters in Gabon say the plethora of anti-Bongo candidates -- more than 20 lined up against him -- split the vote and gave Ben Bongo an easy passage to victory.
Their first public statement was to call for a recount, an international inquiry into the crackdown by security forces on protesters, and to urge the Gabonese to prepare for what they called "progressive action". None of these have taken place.
France and other poll observers have said election procedures were broadly acceptable and there seems to be little appetite internationally to call for a re-run.
WHAT WILL BE ALI BONGO'S NEXT STEPS?
A ceremony to swear in Ben Bongo had been widely expected to take place this week, but a date has not yet been set, according to Gabon's communications ministry.
Opposition candidates have complained that they had seen a letter from Gabon's foreign ministry inviting diplomats to an investiture ceremony due to take place on Sept. 21, implying that the court's review of the election was irrelevant.
That date would have clashed with a Sept. 22 United Nations General Assembly, which many African heads of state attended.
Meanwhile, in the days after his victory, Ben Bongo toured central Africa, meeting the presidents of Chad, Cameroon and Congo Republic to garner support for his nascent regime.
When he does begin forming an administration, Ben Bongo will have to live up to his election promise of being able to deliver change, despite spending his political career to date under the wing of his father, former president Omar Bongo, who died in June after four decades in power.
WHAT WILL THE PRIORITIES BE?
His PDG party has said it could work in government with former rivals, an overture that has yet to meet any clear response. He has declared that he wants to be "president of all the Gabonese" but with less that 42 percent of the vote, he will face questions about his mandate.
A minority Teke, he could follow his father in assembling a government that includes all of Gabon's myriad ethnic groups. However, while that might shore up his own power, it would hardly make decision-making on tough reforms any easier.
Election pledges included vows of better schools, vocational training, healthcare and access to new homes -- all of which cost money at a time when Gabon's oil reserves are shrinking.
That potential for budgetary pressure -- and the risk that Bongo will need to raise the deficit to "buy" political popularity with higher spending -- is already been cited as a concern for holders of its 2017 Eurobond 362420AA9=RRPS.
Both his country and financial markets will watch closely for first outlines of his new government in the days running up to his swearing-in.
(Reporting by Linel Kwatsi; Writing by Daniel Magnowski; Editing by David Lewis)
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