Southeast Asia insurgents fragmented but dangerous

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Jihadist violence remains a key risk in Southeast Asia, despite last week's killing of al Qaeda's self-proclaimed leader in the region, but it is a fragmented movement with leadership challenges.

Noordin Mohammed Top, who famously eluded Indonesian police for years, was finally tracked down at one of his safe houses on September 16, and died in a hail of gunfire along with two of his top lieutenants.

Top, thought to have masterminded a series of bombing attacks that killed hundreds since 2002, had proclaimed himself al Qaeda's leader in Southeast Asia.

He may have intended the July 17 bombings of Jakarta hotels to advertise that -- and reap the benefits in recruiting, funding and "technology transfer" that come with the al Qaeda brand. His death raises questions about who will fill his shoes and how effective his group can be without him.

No one, however, is calling his demise a knock-out blow against violent jihadism in Southeast Asia.

"The superstructure that enables terrorism to take place remains intact," said Rohan Gunanratna, a regional terrorism expert at Nanyang Technological Institute in Singapore.

"This superstructure involves the distribution of terrorist and extremist propaganda, fund-raising, procurement, safe-houses, training, and other support functions."

Indeed, at an Islamic boarding school near the house where Top was killed, one of his associates was teaching the next generation of jihadists martial arts and the ideology of martyrdom as an extra-curricular activity.

RETURN OF THE UNREFORMED

Muslim clerics and teachers in Indonesia, southern Thailand, the southern Philippines and Malaysia continue to propagate radical interpretations of Islam.

Key Indonesian fugitives remain at large, some hiding out in the jungles of the southern Philippines with other militant groups.

Hundreds of Muslims detained in the early part of this decade, when the region was seen as the "second front" in a global war on terror after the 9/11 attacks, are now being released -- and some may prove to be unreformed.

Jihadist websites are easily accessible to tempt them back into the fray.

"It is unlikely, in the foreseeable future, that we will reach a point where it can be said that terrorism in the region has been defeated or eliminated," Australia's Counter Terrorism Ambassador, Bill Paterson, said in a speech last week.

Yet the insurgencies in Southeast Asia have been notable for their inability to link up or coalesce around unified leadership.

Jemaah Islamiah's (JI) former military commander, Indonesian Riduan Isamuddin, better known by his nom de guerre Hambali, tried to pull together various groups in the region under an al Qaeda umbrella before he was captured in Thailand in 2003. He remains in detention in Guantanamo Bay.

He was unsuccessful mainly because the groups had varying agendas. JI wanted to establish an Islamic caliphate across Muslim-majority areas of Southeast Asia. The Thais are fighting

an ethno-nationalist rebellion for a separate state. Rebels in the Philippines want autonomy for Muslim Mindanao island.

The ideology that animates the movements -- Islam -- tends to keep movements fractionalized.

"In dealing with these insurgencies it's often hard to discern leadership," said one expert who works on conflict resolution in the region.

"And this is where Islamic culture plays a role, because there are no hierarchies in Islam. As a result, everyone has a view," said the expert, who could not be identified due to the sensitivity of his work. "These groups don't have politburos."

Top was effective because he was ruthless, charismatic and educated. His ability to elude capture led some Indonesians to believe he had mystical powers or protection.

Indonesian authorities have mined a rich lode of intelligence since his death that could lead to more arrests and raids, complicating his group's challenge to find fresh leadership.

PRICING IN RISKS

Countries and companies face various kinds of risks from terrorism, and markets, which have largely priced in the threat, do not move much on one-off events such as the Jakarta bombings.

Singapore, embarrassed last year by a daring jail escape of a high-profile JI militant, worries that the biggest container port in the world can be attacked.

The Malacca Strait between Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's busiest shipping lane, is infested with pirates and vulnerable to a terrorist attack.

Muslim-majority Malaysia has been incident-free since suffering a spree of attacks in 2000-2001 blamed on a now defunct group allied to JI. But radical literature is distributed and militants are being recruited there, experts said.

Top and fellow JI commander Azahari Husin, killed in a 2005 raid in East Java, were both Malaysians.

The Thai insurgency, seeking to recreate a Malay sultanate that once straddled northern Malaysia and southern Thailand, has the potential to widen with implications for both countries, if targets in Bangkok or tourist centers are attacked.

Jihadist groups using sophisticated tactics and technology can stage spectacular incidents such as the Jakarta hotel bombings to showcase their international reach, experts say.

But local grievances are mostly what motivate the young and impressionable to strive for martyrdom, experts say. Addressing them will go far toward undermining the appeal radicalism.

(Editing by Ron Popeski)