USC Lusk Center for Real Estate Economists Offer Real-Time Insights on New Blog

* Faculty Contribute Latest Thinking on Current Events in Real Estate
* Initial Postings Discuss Concerns About Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities,
the Outlook for Defaults in Multifamily Loans, and the Impact of Consumer
Downtrading on Retail Real Estate

LOS ANGELES--(Business Wire)--
The USC Lusk Center for Real Estate has started a real estate blog on its
website (http://blogs.usc.edu/lusk/) featuring up-to-the-minute postings by USC
Lusk Center faculty on developments in real estate markets nationally and
internationally. "Many on our faculty publish articles on real estate and
finance topics, but the normal research cycle can take weeks or months," said
Richard K. Green, Director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "We started
the blog to allow our faculty to publish their most current observations on our
website and to solicit reactions and comments from the students, fellow
academics, journalists and other experts who look to the Lusk Center faculty for
their insights on the economic trends and policies that are shaping residential
and commercial real estate markets worldwide."

Initial postings on the blog include a number of leading-edge topics of concern
to policy makers:

* Stan Ross, chair of the Lusk Center board of directors, speculates on the
outcome of close to $300 million of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)
that are coming due by the end of 2009. While this market has become highly
illiquid and shares have fallen in value, Ross describes a wide range of
alternatives to default in these securities, including paying off the CMBS with
new equity and a new proposal from the Treasury to allow modifications to
troubled loans that would not trigger immediate tax results. As a result, Ross
foresees more loans restructured and modified, and fewer defaults.
* Richard K. Green, Ph.D., director of the Lusk Center, comments on the monthly
delinquency summaries published by Freddie and Fannie and says that while
single-family delinquency rates remain high, multifamily loans continue to
perform well because apartments are producing reasonably good cash flows. He
notes, however, that "when multifamily loans come due, rising cap rates and
falling rents will make them difficult to refinance, so we will start seeing
defaults in this sector increase in the next few years."
* Jenny Schuetz, assistant professor, USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development, explores theimpact of changes in consumer buying behavior during
the current recession on retail real estate. She believes consumer downtrading
and the substitution towards cheaper items can best be managed by changing
inventories within single stores, providing a quicker and cheaper solution for
owners than tenant turnover. At the same time, she says, as long as the retail
recession continues, "shopping centers with greater diversification, both of
product types and price points, should be less vulnerable than retail centers
with highly specialized stores or ones that cater primarily to the top end of
the market."
* Other postings discuss the economics of light rail systems, the varied impacts
of differing state laws on mortgage defaults, and the changing economics in the
market for large homes.

The USC Lusk Center for Real Estate (www.usc.edu/lusk) addresses timely issues
that affect real estate, the urban economy and public policy. The Lusk Center is
committed to advancing real estate knowledge by generating relevant research,
offering educational programs and hosting major forums to bring together
economists, business executives, students and community leaders. The Lusk Center
has launched several online initiatives this year including a presence on
Facebook, LinkedIn, and YouTube.

For USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
Francie Murphy, 858-350-5152
cell: 858-922-0079
francie@fmassociates.com
or
Mary Peralta, 213-821-5468
meperalt@usc.edu

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