UPDATE 1-Mexico economy seen shrinking 7.2 pct in 2009-poll

(Adds detail on growth estimates, background)

MEXICO CITY Oct 1 (Reuters) - Analysts expect Mexico's economy to shrink 7.2 percent in 2009, a central bank survey said on Thursday, the same as projected in the prior month's poll.

Local and international analysts polled in late September saw the economy growing 2.8 percent in 2010, slightly lower than last month's estimate of 2.9 percent.

The downturn in the United States, Mexico's top trading partner, has plunged the country into its deepest recession since the 1930s after demand for its exports collapsed.

After falling steeply in the first half of the year, signs are emerging that the economy is starting to expand again.

Mexico's economic output in July was still significantly down compared to the year-ago period but output grew from the previous month.

Economists predicted 12-month inflation at the end of 2009 would be 4.29 percent compared to 4.25 percent in the prior poll. (Reporting by Michael O'Boyle and Noel Randewich, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)