NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 50.9%; September Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 54.2% Employment Index at 44.3%
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DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports
released across the country. The national report`s information reflects the
entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data
from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is
not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information
compiled in this report is for the month of September 2009.
TEMPE, Ariz.--(Business Wire)--
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in September, say the
nation`s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM
Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the
Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and
senior vice president - supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. "The
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.9 percent in September, 2.5
percentage points higher than the 48.4 percent registered in August, indicating
growth in the non-manufacturing sector after 11 consecutive months of
contraction. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 3.8
percentage points to 55.1 percent. This is the second consecutive month this
index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased
4.3 percentage points to 54.2 percent, and the Employment Index increased 0.8
percentage point to 44.3 percent. The Prices Index decreased 14.3 percentage
points to 48.8 percent in September, indicating a significant reversal and
decrease in prices paid from August. According to the NMI, five
non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Even with the overall
month-over-month growth reflected in the report this month, respondents`
comments vary by industry and remain mixed about business conditions and the
overall economy.
This month, we asked a special question with regard to the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act. Fifteen of the 18 non-manufacturing industries expect to
derive some benefit from the program, and 14 non-manufacturing industries
responded that they expect their companies to see some benefit."
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The five industries reporting growth in September based on the NMI composite
index - listed in order - are: Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance;
Retail Trade; Construction; and Wholesale Trade. The 13 industries reporting
contraction in September - listed in order - are: Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food
Services; Mining; Public Administration; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental &
Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Management
of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and
Transportation & Warehousing.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
* "Sales are very steady and have risen some each month in the past six months.
The bottom is now here." (Construction)
* "Economic recovery turnaround has begun in the financial services sector;
however, cautious expense management is still practiced." (Finance & Insurance)
* "Lack of capital available for new project development." (Accommodation & Food
Services)
* "Continue to see signs of slow recovery, but customers are still putting
orders off until the beginning of 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services)
* "Inconsistent … just when things seem to be settling a bit, a new set of
pressures develops." (Retail Trade)
* "Improvements seen in prices available for natural gas and other fuels."
(Educational Services)
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE
COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS(a)
SEPTEMBER 2009
Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing
Series Series Percent Direction Rate of Trend(b) Series Series Percent
Index Index Point Change (Months) Index Index Point
Sept. August Change Sept. August Change
NMI/PMI 50.9 48.4 +2.5 Growing From Contracting 1 52.6 52.9 -0.3
Business Activity/ 55.1 51.3 +3.8 Growing Faster 2 55.7 61.9 -6.2
Production
New Orders 54.2 49.9 +4.3 Growing From Contracting 1 60.8 64.9 -4.1
Employment 44.3 43.5 +0.8 Contracting Slower 17 46.2 46.4 -0.2
Supplier Deliveries 50.0 49.0 +1.0 Unchanged From Faster 1 58.0 57.1 +0.9
Inventories 47.5 43.0 +4.5 Contracting Slower 13 42.5 34.4 +8.1
Prices 48.8 63.1 -14.3 Decreasing From Increasing 1 63.5 65.0 -1.5
Backlog of Orders 51.5 41.0 +10.5 Growing From Contracting 1 53.5 52.5 +1.0
New Export Orders 48.5 54.0 -5.5 Contracting From Growing 1 55.0 55.5 -0.5
Imports 51.5 49.0 +2.5 Growing From Contracting 1 52.0 49.5 +2.5
Inventory Sentiment 62.0 67.5 -5.5 Too High Slower 148 N/A N/A N/A
Customers` Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 39.0 39.0 0.0
(a) Non-ManufacturingISM Report On Business®data is seasonally adjusted for
Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report
On Business®data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment,
Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
(b) Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Canned Fruit; Cheese (2); Gasoline(c) (2); Milk; and Steel Products.
Commodities Down in Price
Gasoline(c); and Pork.
Commodities in Short Supply
No commodities were reported in short supply for the third consecutive month.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated
after each item.
(c) Reported as both up and down in price.
SEPTEMBER 2009 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index)
In September, the NMI registered 50.9 percent, indicating expansion in the
non-manufacturing sector for the first time since August 2008. A reading above
50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally
expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally
contracting.
NMI HISTORY
Month NMI Month NMI
Sep 2009 50.9 Mar 2009 40.8
Aug 2009 48.4 Feb 2009 41.6
Jul 2009 46.4 Jan 2009 42.9
Jun 2009 47.0 Dec 2008 40.1
May 2009 44.0 Nov 2008 37.4
Apr 2009 43.7 Oct 2008 44.6
Average for 12 months - 44.0
High - 50.9
Low - 37.4
Business Activity
ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index in September registered 55.1
percent, an increase of 3.8 percentage points when compared to the 51.3 percent
registered in August. Eight industries reported increased business activity, and
eight industries reported decreased activity for the month of September. Two
industries reported no change from August. Comments from respondents include:
"More business development activity" and "Increased demand for service."
The industries reporting growth of business activity in September - listed in
order - are: Mining; Construction; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social
Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Information; and
Wholesale Trade. The industries reporting decreased business activity in
September - listed in order - are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management
of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services;
Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services;
Public Administration; and Utilities.
Business Activity %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 25 56 19 55.1
Aug 2009 28 44 28 51.3
Jul 2009 19 53 28 46.1
Jun 2009 28 50 22 49.8
New Orders
ISM`s Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index grew in September after 11 consecutive
months of contraction. The index registered 54.2 percent, which is an increase
of 4.3 percentage points from the 49.9 percent registered in August. Comments
from respondents include: "Increased traffic" and "Promotional activity."
The seven industries reporting growth of new orders in September - listed in
order - are: Utilities; Construction; Retail Trade; Transportation &
Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; and Educational
Services. The eight industries reporting contraction of new orders in September
- listed in order - are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Real Estate,
Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services;
Information; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services.
New Orders %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 25 54 21 54.2
Aug 2009 27 46 27 49.9
Jul 2009 22 52 26 48.1
Jun 2009 29 45 26 48.6
Employment
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in September for
the 20th time in the last 21 months. ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Employment Index
for September registered 44.3 percent. This reflects an increase of 0.8
percentage point when compared to the 43.5 percent registered in August. Three
industries reported increased employment, 12 industries reported decreased
employment, and three industries reported unchanged employment compared to
August. Comments from respondents include: "New business needs" and "Positions
previously frozen are now approved to be filled."
The industries reporting an increase in employment in September are: Health Care
& Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational
Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in September -
listed in order - are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale
Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.
Employment %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 13 60 27 44.3
Aug 2009 8 68 24 43.5
Jul 2009 13 61 26 41.5
Jun 2009 13 64 23 43.4
Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50 percent in September, indicating
supplier deliveries were unchanged in September when compared to August. A
reading at 50 percent indicates an equal balance of non-manufacturing
respondents reporting slower and faster deliveries from suppliers. A reading
above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The five industries reporting slower deliveries in September are: Utilities;
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services;
Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four
industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in September are: Agriculture,
Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Educational Services; and
Transportation & Warehousing.
Supplier Deliveries %Slower %Same %Faster Index
Sep 2009 8 84 8 50.0
Aug 2009 7 84 9 49.0
Jul 2009 8 84 8 50.0
Jun 2009 3 86 11 46.0
Inventories
ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Inventories Index registered 47.5 percent in September,
indicating that inventory levels contracted in September for the 13th
consecutive month. Of the total respondents in September, 30 percent indicated
they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents
include: "Higher inventory level due to increased backorders" and "Higher due to
reducing delivery frequency."
The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in September - listed
in order - are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance;
Other Services; Utilities; Construction; Finance & Insurance; and Retail Trade.
The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in September - listed in
order - are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation &
Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food
Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade.
Inventories %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 20 55 25 47.5
Aug 2009 9 68 23 43.0
Jul 2009 18 58 24 47.0
Jun 2009 14 62 24 45.0
Prices
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and
services decreased significantly in September. ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Prices
Index for September registered 48.8 percent, 14.3 percentage points lower than
the 63.1 percent reported in August. In September, the percentage of respondents
reporting higher prices is 9 percent, the percentage indicating no change in
prices paid is 77 percent, and 14 percent of the respondents reported lower
prices.
In September, six industries reported an increase in prices paid, in the
following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies &
Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade;
Transportation & Warehousing; and Educational Services. The eight industries
reporting prices as decreasing for the month of September - listed in order -
are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing;
Other Services; Construction; Information; Public Administration; Finance &
Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 9 77 14 48.8
Aug 2009 23 71 6 63.1
Jul 2009 13 59 28 41.3
Jun 2009 26 60 14 53.7
Backlog of Orders
ISM`s Non-Manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index grew in September after 13
consecutive months of contraction. The index registered 51.5 percent, 10.5
percentage points higher than the 41 percent reported in August. Of the total
respondents in September, 41 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of
orders.
The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September are:
Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care &
Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting lower
backlog of orders in September are: Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.
Backlog of Orders %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 19 65 16 51.5
Aug 2009 11 60 29 41.0
Jul 2009 10 64 26 42.0
Jun 2009 11 70 19 46.0
New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be
provided outside of the United States by domestically based personnel contracted
in September after one month of growth in August. The New Export Orders Index
for September registered 48.5 percent, which is a decrease of 5.5 percentage
points from August`s index of 54 percent. Of the total respondents in September,
66 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure,
orders for work outside of the United States.
The four industries reporting an increase in new export orders in September are:
Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; and
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a
decrease in export orders in September are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other
Services; and Wholesale Trade.
New Export Orders %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 14 69 17 48.5
Aug 2009 27 54 19 54.0
Jul 2009 15 65 20 47.5
Jun 2009 33 43 24 54.5
Imports
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Imports Index registered 51.5 percent in September.
The index is 2.5 percentage points higher than August`s index of 49 percent. In
September, 57 percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not
track, the use of imported materials.
The four industries reporting an increase in the use of imports in September
are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Information; and Retail
Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of
September are: Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade.
Imports %Higher %Same %Lower Index
Sep 2009 9 85 6 51.5
Aug 2009 10 78 12 49.0
Jul 2009 8 74 18 45.0
Jun 2009 5 84 11 47.0
Inventory Sentiment
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in September registered 62
percent. This is 5.5 percentage points lower than the 67.5 percent reported in
August, indicating that respondents still believe their inventories are too high
at this time. In September, 30 percent of respondents said their inventories
were too high, 6 percent said their inventories were too low, and 64 percent
said their inventories were about right.
The 10 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in
September - listed in order - are: Mining; Finance & Insurance; Other Services;
Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of
Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade;
Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting
that their inventories are too low in September are: Real Estate, Rental &
Leasing; and Transportation & Warehousing.
Inventory Sentiment %Too %About %Too Index
High
Right Low
Sep 2009 30 64 6 62.0
Aug 2009 38 59 3 67.5
Jul 2009 28 69 3 62.5
Jun 2009 38 58 4 67.0
Special Questions - September
Survey respondents were asked special questions designed to learn more about
expectations regarding the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The questions
were structured to determine if respondents believe that their industry and
organization will benefit from the program as they understand it.
Of all respondents in September, 44 percent indicate that their industry will
benefit. The 15 industries with respondents indicating that they expect to
benefit in September - listed in order - are: Public Administration; Educational
Services; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services;
Wholesale Trade; Construction; Retail Trade; Utilities; Health Care & Social
Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing;
Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information;
and Other Services.
In September, 44 percent of respondents indicate that their company will benefit
from the program. The 14 industries with respondents indicating that their
company will benefit - listed in order - are: Public Administration; Educational
Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Utilities; Health Care &
Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing;
Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and
Information.
About this Report
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of non-manufacturing supply
managers based on information they have collected within their respective
organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this
release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the
data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data
sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from
purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Non-Manufacturing
Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry`s
contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Non-Manufacturing Business
Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories:
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction;
Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information;
Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational
Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation;
Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services
(services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering
Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning &
Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care
Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating
Services).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to
the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New
Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory
Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report
shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. Responses
represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for
Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment
factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually
to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes
have not indicated significant seasonality.
The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the
indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New
Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier
Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are
convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the
scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the
non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent
indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A
Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below
50 percent indicates faster deliveries.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the
Institute for Supply Management, the largest supply management research and
education organization in the United States. The Institute for Supply
Management, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization
in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM`s mission is to lead the
supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research,
promotional activities and education.
The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted
on ISM's Web site at www.ism.ws on the third business day of every month after
10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the October 2009
data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday November 4, 2009.
Institute for Supply Management, Tempe
Rose Marie Goupil, 800-888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws
Copyright Business Wire 2009
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