Fitch Downgrades MSCI 2006-IQ12; Assigns Outlooks
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)-- Fitch Ratings has taken various rating actions on 25 classes of Morgan Stanley Capital I (MSCI) Trust 2006-IQ12, commercial mortgage pass-through certificates, including downgrades to 12 classes. In addition, Fitch has assigned Rating Outlooks and Loss Severity (LS) ratings, as applicable. A detailed list of rating actions follows at the end of this press release. The downgrades are the result of Fitch's loss expectations on specially serviced loans as well as prospective views regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow declines. Fitch forecasts potential losses of 7.8% for this transaction, should market conditions not recover. Today's rating actions are based on losses of 6.2% including 100% of the losses associated with term defaults and any losses associated with maturities within the next five years. Given the significant term to maturity, Fitch's actions only account for 25% of the losses associated with maturities beyond five years. The bonds with Negative Outlooks indicate classes that may be downgraded in the future should full potential losses be realized. Fitch analyzed the transaction and calculated expected losses by assuming cash flows on each of the properties decline 15% from year-end (YE) 2007 and property values decline 35% from issuance. These loss estimates were reviewed in more detail for loans representing 61.6% of the pool and, in certain cases, revised based on additional information and/or property characteristics. Approximately 13.7% of the mortgages are scheduled to mature within the next five years, of which 12.9% of the pool is maturing in 2011. In 2016, 81% of the pool is scheduled to mature. Fitch identified 78 Loans of Concern (24.4%) within the pool, 26 of which (12.1%) are specially serviced. Three of the specially serviced loans (6.8% of the pool) are within the transaction's top 15 loans, which comprises 45.8% of the total pool's unpaid principal balance. Through its analysis, Fitch determined eight of the top 15 loans (18.4% of the pool) have a higher probability of defaulting during the term or at maturity, with loss severities ranging from less than 10% to approximately 75%. Of the top 15 loans, the largest contributors (by loan balance) to expected term losses are as follows: Westin O'Hare (3.8% of the pool balance), Harbour Centre (1.9%) and New Horizon Apartments (1.1%). These three loans are in special servicing. Westin O'Hare is collateralized by a 525 key full-service hotel located in Rosemont, IL adjacent to Chicago O'Hare International Airport. The loan transferred to special servicing in June 2009 for imminent default as the borrower indicated they would no longer fund the debt service shortfalls. The performance of the hotel has declined significantly from issuance. The trailing twelve month (TTM) occupancy, average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) as of July 2009 was 61.2%, $126 and $77, respectively, compared to 71%, $185 and $131, respectively at issuance. The annualized June 2009 servicer reported debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was 0.48 times (x) compared to 1.46x at issuance. Harbour Centre is secured by a 217,056 square foot (sf) office building located in Aventura, FL. The loan transferred to special servicing in April 2009 for imminent payment default. The borrower is seeking to modify the loan as the property has lost tenants since issuance with a recent reported occupancy as of June 2009 of approximately 70%, compared to 90% at issuance. Approximately 28% of the leases are scheduled to expire prior to YE 2011. The annualized June 2009 servicer-reported DSCR was 1.00x on an interest-only basis. The sponsor is Triple Net Properties, LLC. New Horizon Apartments (1.1%) is secured by a 912 unit multifamily property located in Memphis, TN. The property is real estate owned (REO) and is approximately 25% occupied as of August 2009 compared to 86.5% at issuance. Fitch expects significant losses upon disposition of this asset based on recent valuations. Fitch downgrades, removes from Rating Watch Negative, and assigns LS ratings, Recovery Ratings (RR) and Outlooks to the following classes as indicated: --$242.3 class A-J to 'BBB/LS3' from 'AAA'; Negative Outlook; --$17.1 million class B to 'BBB-/LS5' from 'AA+'; Negative Outlook; --$44.4 million class C to 'BB/LS5' from 'AA'; Negative Outlook; --$27.3 million class D to 'BB/LS5' from 'A+'; Negative Outlook; --$13.7 million class E to 'BB/LS5' from 'A'; Negative Outlook; --$23.9 million class F to 'B/LS5' from 'A-'; Negative Outlook; --$23.9 million class G to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB+'; Negative Outlook; --$27.3 million class H to 'B-/LS5' from 'BBB'; Negative Outlook; --$27.3 million class J to 'CCC/RR6' from 'BB+'; --$34.1 million class K to 'CC/RR6' from 'B-'; --$3.4 million class L to 'C/RR6' from 'CCC/RR2'; --$6.8 million class M to 'C/RR6' from 'CC/RR4'. Fitch affirms the following class: --$13.7 million class N at 'C/RR6'. Additionally, Fitch affirms the following classes and Outlooks and assigns LS ratings as indicated: --$32.6 million class A-1 at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$511.5 million class A-1A at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$70.2 million class A-2 at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$225 million class A-NM at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$44.5 million class A-3 at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$88.2 million class A-AB at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$897.6 million class A-4 at 'AAA/LS1'; Outlook Stable; --$173 million class A-M at 'AAA/LS3'; Outlook Stable; --$100 million class A-MFL at 'AAA/LS3'; Outlook Stable; --Interest-only class X-1 at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; --Interest-only class X-2 at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable; --Interest-only class X-W at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable. The $3.4 million class O, $6.8 million class P, $10.2 million class Q and $20.4 million class S are not rated by Fitch. Additional information on Fitch's amended criteria for analyzing recent vintage U.S. CMBS is available in the July 8, 2009 report, 'Surveillance Methodology for Recent Vintage U.S. CMBS,' which is available at www.fitchratings.com under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Criteria Reports Fitch will release a report titled 'Morgan Stanley Capital I Trust 2006-IQ12' that will contain a graph of revised loss expectations for the transaction at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the following headers: Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Special Reports Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. Fitch Ratings Jeffrey Diliberto, +1-212-908-9173 Adam Fox, +1-212-908-0869 Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278 (Media Relations) sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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