Fitch Comments on Energy Future Holdings Exchange Offer
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NEW YORK--(Business Wire)-- Energy Future Holdings Corp. (EFH; IDR 'B', Outlook Negative by Fitch) and Energy Future Intermediate Holdings (EFIH) today launched an exchange offer that solicits the tender of unguaranteed legacy TXU unsecured notes, EFH cash pay and payment-in-kind (PIK) toggle guaranteed unsecured leveraged buyout (LBO) notes, and Texas Competitive Electric Holdings (TCEH; IDR 'B' by Fitch) cash pay guaranteed unsecured LBO notes in exchange for up to $4 billion of new secured notes to be issued by EFIH and/or EFH. Security for the new secured notes that mature in 2019 will be a pledge of 100% of EFIH's membership interests in Oncor Electric Delivery Holdings (Oncor Holdings). EFH management's impetus for the exchange offer is to reduce debt and extend the average life of debt. Issuance of the new secured notes pursuant to the exchange offer would change the relative seniority of debt in the EFH (parent) capital structure. Fitch expects that the outcome will be to lower the relative recovery prospects and ratings of certain of EFH's remaining unexchanged debt instruments as explained below. The exchange offer does not conform to Fitch's definition of a coercive debt exchange, since in Fitch's view there is not a high probability of the issuer's near-term bankruptcy or insolvency absent the exchange, and EFH does not intend to represent to holders that bankruptcy is likely if holders reject the exchange offer. Also, holders who accept the exchange offer will obtain a direct security pledge of EFIH's stock in Oncor Holdings, which is an improvement to their current unsecured position, offsetting to some extent the discount they will receive on the par value of the notes. Fitch expects to assign a rating to the new secured notes once the result of the exchange offer is known and at the same time will update the EFH debt issue ratings for the non-exchanged portions of EFH legacy notes and EFH cash pay and PIK toggle LBO notes based on their new relative rankings in the capital structure and an updated recovery analysis valuation. The offer expires on Nov. 3, 2009. While the outcome of the exchange offer is uncertain, Fitch expects to downgrade the 'B+' ratings of the non-exchanged EFH cash pay and PIK toggle LBO notes because of reduced recovery prospects in a default scenario as a result of becoming subordinated to the new secured notes with regard to EFIH's pledge of its ownership interest in Oncor Holdings. The 'CCC' rating of any non-exchanged EFH unguaranteed legacy notes is unlikely to change, as these notes are already subordinated within the EFH capital structure and their recovery prospects will remain extremely low. In Fitch's view, the Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) and Negative Rating Outlook of EFH and TCEH will be unaffected pro forma for the exchange because combined debt of EFH and TCEH of approximately $38.1 billion (excluding Oncor Electric Delivery LLC debt) will be reduced by only approximately 5% as a result of the exchange. The credit profile of EFH will remain closely tied to that of TCEH. While the proposed exchange would slightly lower interest expense and could lower consolidated debt by approximately $2 billion, depending on the issues tendered and outcome of the offer, the debt reduction relating to the exchange is considered insufficient to move the 'B' IDR/Negative Outlook in light of the still high leverage, thin interest coverage and challenging wholesale power market conditions. While the exchange transaction alone would not change EFH's IDR, Fitch notes that other factors such as the reduced industrial demand, weak Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power market conditions and thin coverage and high leverage could lead to lower ratings. No changes to TCEH and Oncor's IDR and issue ratings are expected as a result of the proposed exchange offer. The capital structure and recovery prospects at TCEH would be at most nominally affected even if the entire $1.5 billion amount of TCEH notes permitted to be exchanged in the offer were exchanged, and there would be no change to Oncor's capital structure or ring-fencing. Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. Fitch Ratings, New York Sharon Bonelli, 212-908-0581 Ellen Lapson, CFA, 212-908-0504 or Media Relations: Cindy Stoller, 212-908-0526 Email: cindy.stoller@fitchratings.com Copyright Business Wire 2009
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