Research and Markets: Japan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013 Report; Total Wireless Subscribers in Japan to Reach 131 Million in 2013

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8b9678/3q09_japan_mobile) has
announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "3Q09 Japan
Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013" to their offering.

Total wireless subscribers in Japan to reach 131 million in 2013 with SOFTBANK
MOBILE taking market share away from NTT DOCOMO and KDDI over the next five
years.

The Mobile Operator Forecast on Japan provides over 50 operational and financial
metrics for Japan's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the
industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to
2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003
and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Japan include: NTT DOCOMO, Inc.,
KDDI Corporation, SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp., and WILLCOM, Inc. Our Mobile Operator
Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or
through regular updates.

The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile
operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our
forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models.
These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that
estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment
data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country;
and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Japan's wireless market

* +3.5% Industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009

ARPU levels continue to decline across operators in Japan

* -10.4% industry-average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing

* Average MOU/Sub of 134 minutes per month in 1Q.2009

NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA declined significantly in the latest quarter

* -5.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009

So what is IEMR's Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in Japan to reach 131 million in 2013

* We expect the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Japan to continue
increasing over the next five years. Our model predicts that it will increase
from 109.3 million in 2008 to 131.8 million in 2013.
* NTT DOCOMO will continue to serve the highest number of subscribers among
other operators. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber
base will increase from 54.2 million in 2008 to 60.6 million in 2013.
* KDDI will continue to be the second largest operator in Japan with 35.7
million mobile subscribers in 2013, according to our model.

SOFTBANK MOBILE's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five
years

* Our model predicts that NTT DOCOMO's subscriber market share will decrease
from 49.6% in 2008 to 46.0% in 2013. Instead, SOFTBANK MOBILE will see its
market share increase from 18.3% in 2008 to 23.6% in 2013.
* We forecast that KDDI's share of total subscribers will also decline from
28.0% in 2008 to 27.1% in 2013.
* Also, we expect that WILLCOM's market share will fall from 4.2% to 3.4% over
the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPU levels will continue declining from 2009 to 2013

* We forecast that the operator-wide average monthly ARPU in Japan will decrease
from 5,571 yen in 2008 to 4,000 yen in 2013.
* We expect that SOFTBANK MOBILE will continue to charge lower tariffs than its
competitors to gain market share. According to our forecasting model, ARPU
levels at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will decline over the next five
years to reach 4,070 yen, 4,422 yen, and 3,370 yen respectively in 2013.

NTT DOCOMO will be enjoying the highest EBITDA margins among mobile operators in
Japan

* We expect that NTT DOCOMO's EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA / reported
revenue) will continue to be higher than those of KDDI and SOFTBANK MOBILE over
the next several years.
* We forecast that EBITDA margins at NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SOFTBANK MOBILE will
be approximately 34.8%, 30.2%, and 25.6% respectively in 2013.

Companies Mentioned:

* NTT DOCOMO, Inc.
* KDDI Corporation
* SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp.
* WILLCOM, Inc.

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8b9678/3q09_japan_mobile

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
press@researchandmarkets.com
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716

Copyright Business Wire 2009