FACTBOX: Argentina's 2010 financing outlook

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BUENOS AIRES | Wed Oct 7, 2009 5:05pm EDT

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina is looking to issue an international bond for the first time since its 2001-2002 default, helping it to face $13.1 billion in debt obligations next year.

Private analysts point to a financing gap of as much as $7 billion, including funding for Argentina's provinces, which analysts say the central government may ease if it loosens caps on provincial spending and debt.

A slowing economy has chipped away at growth in Argentina's tax revenues and hit the country's primary budget surplus, a measure of the government's ability to make debt payments.

The following is a look at private analysts' forecasts for Argentina's 2010 financing outlook:

* Argentina's primary budget surplus is expected to fall next year to 0.7 percent of gross domestic product, down from approximately 1.3 percent this year, increasing the likelihood of a budget shortfall.

* Analysts believe the government may be able to rely on $1.5 billion in transfers from the central bank to meet 2010 debt payments, which has generated a debate over whether it can be done without affecting foreign reserves levels, a key anchor of economic stability.

* The government is expected to continue borrowing from government agencies with surpluses, including the national lottery and the pension fund system, to cover any shortfall along with taking out new loans from the Inter-American Bank and the World Bank.

* The government could raise additional cash if it reaches a deal with a group of investors who hold defaulted bonds and rejected Argentina's 2005 debt restructuring. As part of the agreement, those investors would not only accept a restructuring they would also purchase a new government bond for up to $1 billion.

* A recent report from Barclays Capital says the government may consider issuing a $2 billion local bond to Argentine banks at a time when their liquidity is high. Some banks have reportedly said they would be receptive to the move.

* A potential sale of stocks and bonds held by the state-run pension fund could also help generate another $1.5 billion, analysts say.

* Although Argentina can solve short-term financing needs with the measures above, some analysts say the government must also rein in spending and make other reforms to prevent budget crunches in the medium-term.

(Reporting by Guido Nejamkis; Writing by Kevin Gray)

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