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INSTANT VIEW: Italy court rules against Berlusconi immunity

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ROME | Wed Oct 7, 2009 12:50pm EDT

ROME (Reuters) - Italy's highest court ruled on Wednesday that a law granting immunity to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi violates the constitution, in a verdict that could reopen trials against him and undermine his government. Here are analysts' comments on the consequences of the ruling:

RENATO MANNHEIMER, POLITICAL SOCIOLOGIST AT MILAN UNIVERSITY

"This is a crucial moment for Berlusconi, very dramatic. It is a very important decision which will undoubtedly weaken Berlusconi politically, though not necessarily among ordinary people because his approval ratings remain extremely high.

"I would expect him to respond by taking populist measures to strengthen his support among the people."

FRANCO PAVONCELLO, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, JOHN CABOT UNIVERSITY IN ROME

"This means that at least two trials against him will be automatically reopened. He was untouchable and now becomes touchable again, so he can be weakened by the judiciary.

"This also comes in the wake of the sex scandal. One question that his allies will be asking themselves is: Is this worth the fight? We have seen some belligerent statements from the Northern League, but I don't know how many people will want to go down that road.

"Even if they decide to call an early election to give Berlusconi new legitimacy, his judicial problems will remain."

TITO BOERI, ECONOMICS PROFESSOR AT MILAN'S BOCCONI UNIVERSITY

"This is bad news for Italy. Berlusconi was already a lame duck at the head of a weak government because of the scandals around his personal life and now he is going to be even more lame duck heading an even weaker government.

"Italy is in bad need of reforms to get the economy going and this makes those reforms even less likely because Berlusconi will be less inclined or able to focus on any reform effort.

"I am pessimistic. Italy had no housing bubble or banking crisis but even so its economy is performing worse than most of its neighbors.

"The ruling will make the government weaker and even less effective, but I don't think it will cause it to fall or affect its duration.

"I also don't think it will have any significant effect on the stock market or bond spreads."

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