UPDATE 4-Marriott sees weak room rates into 2010

Thu Oct 8, 2009 1:02pm EDT

* RevPAR outlook deemed weak by investors

* Q3 EPS 15 cents; Street view 13 cents

* Shares slip 0.8 percent (Recasts after conference call; adds analyst comment, byline; updates shares)

By Deepa Seetharaman

NEW YORK, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Marriott International (MAR.N) said weak hotel rates could persist into 2010, sparking concerns that an economic recovery may not spur a quick rebound in the lodging industry.

Marriott, the largest U.S. hotel operator by market capitalization, said revenue per available room could be flat to down 5 percent for hotels worldwide in 2010, which disappointed some investors.

"In an economy that's supposedly in recovery, there are some folks that would expect or hope for better than flat to down five," said Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Woronka.

The forecast overshadowed the company's announcement of quarterly earnings on Thursday that topped Wall Street forecasts.

Marriott shares were down 0.8 percent to $26.73 in Thursday afternoon trading, after sinking as low as $25.36 earlier in the session.

The hotel industry has suffered from falling business demand since last fall and has cut costs and rates to attract price-sensitive vacationers. The weak economy has hurt revenue per available room, or RevPAR, a gauge of fiscal health.

"We expect corporate rates will continue to be weak until we see meaningful occupancy improvement," said Marriott Chief Financial Officer Carl Berquist during a call with analysts.

Berquist added that the company has lowered some corporate rates and has been selling fewer premium rooms.

Strong summer travel demand helped buoy third-quarter results, but now that consumers are returning to work and school, the focus once again is on the business traveler.

"The concern for the fall is that (leisure hotel rates) revert to spring patterns and that that could lead to even lower group and corporate rates, lowering overall rates," Bernstein Research analyst Janet Brashear said in a note.

NET LOSS ON TIMESHARE CHARGE

Marriott took a $752 million pretax charge in the third quarter as it shrunk its timeshare unit. Its net loss was $466 million, or $1.31 per share.

Excluding one-time items, Marriott posted a profit of 15 cents per share. Analysts on average had expected 13 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue fell 17 percent to $2.5 billion, beating analysts' average forecast of nearly $2.4 billion.

Marriott's third-quarter earnings beat was widely expected after the company said in September that domestic revenue per available room in the period was better than it had forecast.

Investors have been betting on lodging stocks this year as signs of economic improvement emerge. Marriott shares rose 25.5 percent in the third quarter, compared to a 15 percent jump in the broader S&P 500 index.

"To me, the valuations are very full and expectations are rising," said Woronka, who has a "hold" on the stock.

Marriott expects fourth-quarter earnings from continuing operations of 20 cents to 23 cents a share. Analysts on average expect 22 cents.

Marriott also expects fourth-quarter North American RevPAR to fall between 13 percent and 16 percent. (Reporting by Deepa Seetharaman; Editing by Derek Caney, John Wallace and Tim Dobbyn)

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