UPDATE 1-Swiss retail sales fall may herald weaker consumption
* Sales down 1.0 pct when adjusted for shopping days
* Spending on clothes and shoes slumps, food, electronics up
* Economists see consumption easing as unemployment rises
(adds analysts' comments; background)
By Sven Egenter
ZURICH, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Swiss retail sales fell in August as consumers cut back spending on shoes and clothes, data showed on Friday, potentially heralding a long-anticipated weakening in Swiss consumption in the wake of rising unemployment.
Economists said falling consumer spending would add to the Swiss National Bank's case for a cautious stance on monetary tightening despite signs the Swiss economy is already moving out of the worst recession in decades.
Retail sales dropped 1.0 percent from a year ago when adjusted for inflation, following a 1.0 percent rise in July, the Federal Statistics Office said on Friday.
Sales were also 1.0 percent lower when also adjusted for the number of shopping days.
"We've seen a downtrend in retail sales growth of late, now it's slipped into contraction," Sarasin analyst Jan Poser said. "It's something we should have expected although the Swiss consumer has held up much better than in the rest of Europe."
Over the first eight months of 2009, real sales were 0.4 percent up compared the year-ago period when adjusted for shopping days, the statistics office said.
CAUTIOUS
The global economic crisis hit Swiss exporters and banks hard and pushed the country into its deepest recession since the mid-1970s.
But consumers have kept spending throughout the crisis as unemployment has only risen slowly and falling consumer prices have boosted purchasing power. In the second quarter, private consumption was up 0.6 percent on the quarter in real terms.
However, most economists see unemployment rising towards record highs next year, which would weigh on consumption.
"With the deterioration in the Swiss domestic economy coming with a lag relative to the external sector, the recovery is also expected to come with a lag," 4Cast analyst Saara Tuuli said.
"Any tightening of policy by the SNB is therefore likely to come some time after other major central banks," she said.
The SNB stuck to its full set of drastic measures in September to fight the recession and deflation risks.
Swiss central bankers have voiced concern over the sustainability of the global recovery and warned that consumption should weaken as unemployment is rising.
Swiss shoppers spent nearly 11 percent less on clothes and shoes in August, the statistics office said. Spending on food and beverages rose 0.4 percent in real terms from August 2008.
Sales of furniture fell 4.5 percent, spending on personal accessories was down over 3 percent. But the Swiss spent 10 percent more on office and consumer electronics. (Reporting by Sven Egenter; editing by Chris Pizzey)
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