SCENARIO: Obama's options in Afghan war

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama is in the midst of a lengthy review of U.S. strategy for Afghanistan that has been complicated by August's fraud-ridden election which is now set for a runoff on November 7.

Facing charges of dithering, Obama is said to be some weeks away from a final decision on whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan.

He and fellow Democrats may believe it is wise to wait until the election is decided, after Afghan President Hamid Karzai's decision this week to accept a runoff election on November 7. Republicans believe he should make up his mind.

On one side of the debate are proposals to send at least 40,000 additional troops and trainers as part of a beefed-up counterinsurgency strategy advocated by the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal.

On the other side are plans to hold troop levels steady in Afghanistan and concentrate on attacking al Qaeda targets along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and in Pakistan with the greater use of drones and special forces, a proposal backed by Vice President Joe Biden.

Washington has 65,000 troops in Afghanistan and that figure is expected to reach 68,000 later this year. Other nations, mainly NATO allies, have some 39,000 troops in the country.

Following are some possible courses of action Obama could choose:

BIG TROOP INCREASE

Top Republicans in Congress and some analysts believe the Afghan war effort is understaffed despite this year's troop increases and requires a further boost in military forces.

They have thrown their support behind McChrystal, who in a confidential assessment warned policymakers that the war would end in failure without additional troops and changes in strategy aimed at gaining the trust of the Afghan people.

But signing off on a troop increase of about 40,000 would be politically difficult for Obama due to the unease within his own Democratic Party and fatigue among the U.S. public after eight years of war in Afghanistan and six in Iraq.

It would also raise concerns among U.S. officials that Afghans will see NATO and U.S. forces as hostile occupiers if their presence is too large. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has in the past voiced this concern, although he has since said he accepts McChrystal's argument that Afghans' perceptions will be affected more by how the troops behave than their numbers.

MODERATE TROOP INCREASE

Obama could decide to add around 10,000 to 15,000 troops to provide more combat power and increase the training of Afghan forces. McChrystal's predecessor, U.S. Army General David McKiernan, had already signaled he wanted some 10,000 extra troops in 2010.

With the insurgency still strong in the south, regaining ground in the east and making new inroads in other parts of the country, military officers may now see the request for a moderate increase in troops as the minimum requirement. Politically, this option would provoke some opposition within Obama's party but probably not enough to make the administration change course.

BIGGER FOCUS ON PAKISTAN, HOLD STEADY ON TROOP LEVELS

National security adviser James Jones has made clear that several options are being considered.

Officials say Biden has argued for keeping U.S. troop levels about the same, but expanding the fight against al Qaeda in Pakistan while beefing up U.S. training of Afghan forces.

Obama could decide to maintain the U.S. troop level at around 68,000. That figure represents an increase of about 36,000 since the start of the year.

WITHDRAWAL

Some analysts and commentators have argued that U.S. forces should withdraw from Afghanistan and stop devoting large amounts of resources to nation-building and fighting Taliban militants.

But Gates has rejected the notion the war could be fought from a distance and dismissed talk of a U.S. military withdrawal.

McChrystal, in a speech in London this month, said such a strategy would probably be short-sighted.

HYBRID OPTION

Some officials and analysts said a moderate increase in troop levels could be paired with a stepped-up counterterrorism strategy, in partnership with Islamabad, to root out al Qaeda and Taliban strongholds in Pakistan.

Pakistan launched a long-awaited ground offensive against Taliban militants in their South Waziristan stronghold near the Afghan border this month.

Washington wants Islamabad to target "all insurgents," not just those threatening its power but also groups leading the fight against NATO in Afghanistan.

(Reporting by Adam Entous and Andrew Gray; editing by Mohammad Zargham)